Not sure which sub-forum this belongs to, but it would be awesome to have a thread dedicated to discussing various global macro views. There are multiple members that I have interesting macro-related discussions with and it would be interesting to hear their views in a consolidated form.
PS. Oh, and if we do create this thread, let's keep politics out of it. I don't care if you are a conservative or liberal, I care about hearing your view about the market, preferably built on some evidence.
Feels like everyone is still trying to ease their way out of the 2008 crash, and we've used up the majority of the runway without taking off. I think that a lot of the economic growth has not been "real" and driven largely by cheap credit (#1 culprit being Chinese corporate/commercial credit). With growth slowing worldwide, I think there are a lot of concerns about the ability to pay off these expenses in the future.
I think more advantage could've been taken of the cheap credit to invest in infrastructure, particularly in developed nations. It's relatively easier to create jobs/employment/income through building/renewing roads & utilities to increase consumer spending, as opposed to relying on tech breakthroughs (eg. electric cars) to drive sales of new companies. Unfortunately, this can come across as "left" political stance.
It's tough to ignore the political lens for macro perspectives IMO. You can't talk about growth rates in Africa w/o talking about massive Asian investment in natural resources. Likewise, is it good for Nigeria that 1 guy (Dangote) is investing massively in staple products like cement & fertilizer? Yes it's good because investment = jobs --> positive future, etcetc. So people use Nigeria as a positive example for economic activity in Africa, but where are the competitors? Are we seeing the early stages of monopolization of resources/materials? I can't say for sure (it's likely no one can), but having $17 billion in Africa goes much farther than $17 billion in USA/EU/Asia.
I work in a ridiculous real estate market where projections are still aggressively upwards around the board (eg. all asset classes, most geographic markets), and considering some of the economic #s coming out recently, I don't agree with some of the market's bullish views.
$0.02
Let me try to chip in a bit on the commodities side. Ever since the trade wars started last year, the farmers have been struggling. Especially the grains farmers. Some simple facts to throw out there are China used to purchase more than half of our soybean production and China was the biggest consumer of our grains production. With the trade disagreements and the higher taxes imposed on China when importing from us, they bought grains from Brazil instead. This was the major reason why the ags' prices went shit-canned and been down-ticking ever since the trade war. Demand for animal feed also went down to the ASF for hogs. To not elaborate too much, demand has slumped while supply remains high which causes the prices for these products (corn, beans, wheat, etc) to go down.
Now as for what are the macro implications? First off, given the farmers are not able to sell their crops, how are they going to fund their daily expenses and further more to finance their crops at grain elevators and etc? Sure, the futures markets are offering a premium for farmers to carry their crops. But the question becomes, how much does that carry pay for storage fees at grain elevators, opportunity costs, and etc? That's why the government had stepped in to promote some sort of relief plan for them. Some are taking on debt while some are frankly crestfallen and don't know what to do. If the trade wars drags on anymore, these farmers will struggle and will trickle down in a macro way whether the government will step in or just let them deal with it on their own.
In conclusion 1) farmers maybe make up a percent of our GDP, not as much as it used to but nonetheless an indicator of our financial wellness as a nation (higher discretionary income leads to higher consumption of commodities, not the case at this moment) 2) Farmers not being able to sell their crops may take on debt and if the markets are still not favorable (margins are already so slim, price of planting vs the price of sale), default on payments can happen. Can make some impact in the debt market due to numerous defaults
My two cents :)