Making Bank | The Daily Peel | 10/15/21

Silver Banana goes to...

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Market Snapshot

What a day. The markets saw their biggest gains since March on the back of bank earnings and other surprisingly non-threatening economic data. The Nasdaq gained 1.73%, the S&P rose 1.71%, and the Dow saw a boost of 1.56%

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Macro Monkey Says

More Bank Earnings — Earnings seasons continued strong yesterday, with the headliners all coming in clutch to back up J.P Morgan’s tease from Wednesday. Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, to name a few, all showed similar trends like slow loan growth and insane M&A activity.

We talk more about BofA below, but spoiler alert: things are going well. Others, especially Citigroup, are absolutely hyped. Citi saw a 48% jump in overall profits, largely driven by record setting trading revenue in equities as well as continued strong performance in fixed income. The firm beat expectations on both top and bottom line and CEO Jane Fraser was a calming voice around notorious difficulties Citi has had in regard to following the rules. Morgan Stanley kicked ass too, beating on top and bottom lines as well, on account of strong investment banking and asset management results. 

The KBW National Bank index gained 1.3% and questionable reports detail bank CEO’s plans to up spending on their respective firm’s cocaine supplies. Life is good. 

PPI — While consumer inflation via the CPI rips upward, producer inflation via the PPI hasn’t exactly gotten the message. The PPI, which measures price increases in final demand products that aren’t components of other products, rose by just 0.5% against predictions in the range of 0.6%-0.7%. Roughly 50% of the increase came from energy prices alone, of course. This slowdown in PPI growth has economists scratching their heads, although I can’t imagine why, as they get basically everything wrong, but it is weird given supply chain troubles and the aforementioned energy crisis. To be fair, the PPI rose 8.6% against that of last year, so maybe they did get the message but just decided to chill out a little bit. 

 

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What's Ripe

Walgreens Boots Alliance ($WBA) — Team CVS can take a back seat for now because yesterday it was all Walgreens. The pharmacy store chain nailed earnings, popping 7.4% on the day and leading the S&P 500’s charge. Revenue adjusted EPS, and net income beat sizably, but GAAP EPS was off estimates by nearly 50%. Still, guidance indicating plans of a heavy lean into healthcare services provided some ammo and outlining a path to EPS growth triggered yesterday’s rise. Locked and loaded.  

Bank of America ($BAC) — BofA, B of A, BAML, don’t matter - stock's up 4.5%. That’s right, bank earnings rolled on and gave investors an inside look at the most practical pulse of the economy. In short, we’re killing it. Like J.P Morgan, as discussed yesterday, record M&A advisory fees propelled the firm to a 21% EPS beat while revenue and net income beat the sh*t out of estimates. Unlike JPM, Bank of America saw a rise in consumer loans, even though it was only 1%. Things look good for now, but like Belichick said, “we’re on to Q4.”

 

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What's Rotten

VIX — In case you haven’t noticed, we talk a lot about the VIX when the market decides to pop off. Today is one of those days. With yesterday’s rise battling back against several weeks of declines, the fear gauge that is the VIX sank 9.6% to a one-month low of 16.86 as the bears went back into their caves. We’ll see when they decide to come back out again but for now, the bulls charge on. 

Money Markets — Shoutout to the legendary quant Jiang because today we’re talking math guys. Jim Simons, aka objectively the best to ever do it, popularized the idea of bringing in the world’s biggest nerds to run Wall Street, and boy were they successful. Well yesterday, the Jiang’s of the world came out with a “100% short” call on just about every currency out there. Citing inflation as the main trigger of the trade. Commodity Trading Advisors and their $340bn complex went full short. The quants in question here are largely momentum guys, so take this as you will, but I’d hate to be a British Pound right now. 

 

Thought Banana:

North Korean Won — No, those commies didn’t win anything. Well, they kinda did, because North Korea’s currency, The North Korean Won, sure is winning against the U.S dollar right now. The weird thing is…no one has any idea why. In the real-world, currencies depreciate as living and economic conditions in their respective nation’s fall. Not sure how much more room North Korea has to fall, but as the nation faces the worst economic sanctions it ever has, The North Korean Won has shot up 25% this year against the good ol’ USD. 

When I say no one knows why, I mean no one (Kim probably doesn’t even know tbh). Obviously, private exchanges in North Korea are illegal and those in the country are obviously a crock of bullsh*t. But, Japanese and South Korean media firms run a network of secret human data providers to keep tabs on the nation known as the “jangmadang”. All I know is sanctions, a pandemic, and horrific starvation doesn’t spell 25% currency appreciation.  

Wise Investor Says

"I heard Jeff Bezos say one time [that] he makes his investments based on if it's going to change people's lives, and once I started doing that strategy, I think I probably quadrupled what I'm worth." — Shaquille O'Neal

 

Happy Investing,

Patrick & The Daily Peel Team

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