Militarization - The pen, at times, is indeed mightier than the sword.
But proponents of State Department-led diplomacy know that the sanctions against Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other state actors have legitimate teeth.
Russia's recent incursion into Ukraine has led to some interesting outcomes.
Sure, we witnessed the largest and most steadfast coalition of the West against an outside nation. It was yuge; everyone got in on it, and even in spite of cost imposition on themselves in the form of rising energy prices, the Continent stood together against Russia.
We also have heard whispers of increased EU and NATO membership amongst remaining nation states in Europe. There's something to be said about Article V protections, just like there's something to be said about being a nuclear power in today's day and age.
At the same time, existing NATO members are finally saying things that would make this country's former orange president happy: pledging at least 2% of their GDP towards defense spending, if not more.
This is good news for the collective defense, and I'd consider it great news for European theater's collective deterrence.
That being said, even though you can't put a price on deterrence, you can put a price on weapon buying. If these rumors come to fruition, the Boeings, Raytheons, Lockheed Martins, L3Harris's, etc., of the world are going to pop, and in a hurry.
If you thought that the US was sending an exorbitant amount of aid to Ukraine, imagine if NATO member-states started to sign outsized deals with weapons makers in the near term. Big time deals = Big time profits for the major defense prime contractors.
In the face of threats from Russia about NATO expansion, an escalation of rhetoric might slow the political conversations surrounding treaty expansion; but at the same time, it might expedite deal room conversations surrounding sales of weapons to foreign partners.
If you're like us here at WSO, you've been shocked at the outcomes of several geopolitical events in 2022. If we make predictions, we're guaranteed to be wrong, so let's see how this unfolds.