Nature Is Healing? | The Daily Peel | 2/18/22

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Market Snapshot

Is there gonna be war in Europe or not? Having the answer to that question right now could probably make you a billionaire (looking at you, Nancy Pelosi) as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to roil markets. Yesterday was another FUD-filled day, leading the Nasdaq to a 2.88% loss, while the S&P fell 2.12%, and the Dow dropped 1.78%.

Graze has created a 100% electric lawn mowing solution to address labor shortages in a $100B market. Their mowers can save companies up to 50% in labor costs and increase profit margins by 3-5x. Learn more and invest here

Let’s get into it.

 

Macro Monkey Says

Show Me The Houses — I think it’s safe to say that in general, people need some sort of shelter. Much of the globe rely on structures commonly known as “houses” for this shelter, but based on the rate at which U.S. builders are constructing new homes, I don’t think they’re at all familiar with the concept.

Exhibit A: Last month, U.S. housing stats dropped much more than expected (because obviously), falling 4.1% from December levels to an annual rate of 1.638M homes. That being said, December data was revised upward slightly, making the relative change a tad more extreme, and last month’s figure still represents an increase of 0.8% compared to January 2021.

So that’s good, right? Nature is healing? Wrong. While January's figures certainly aren’t terrible, they’re not what first-time homebuyers need. With rising mortgage rates and home prices just about at an all-time high, incentives are certainly not in line with buyers’ interests.

The simple fact is that mortgage rates will increase. If you’re looking for a home, don’t blame me, please direct your complaints to JPow and the FOMC. But home prices, however, have some room for improvement. Following the GFC and meltdown of the housing market from 2007-2009, homebuilders have been radically discouraged from building out of fear for a GFC round 2.

But now, consumer balance sheets are about as healthy as they get, we have a massive demographic shift from millennials stepping into their homebuying years, and we simply do not have enough homes.

Without a drastic increase in construction, home prices will remain elevated for a long time to come. Plus, one thing that’s not at all easing prices for homes or commercial properties is a great-looking yard. We can blame Graze for that, because the firm’s electric commercial mower is a nonstop-beautification machine.

Google Pulls an Apple — Well, not really… but kinda. Now that you’re adequately confused, let’s talk about Google’s privacy upgrades. Like Apple last year, Google has apparently decided that they too do not want their mobile operating system (Android) users to be a farm for Mark Zuckerberg to harvest all of their hard-earned data. Thanks, guys!

But… unlike Apple, Google’s privacy changes stop short of the goal line. The search firm “promised not to be disruptive” to the ability of developers to monetize their apps through advertising. Basically, Google is seeking to meet the interest of two parties: users and developers by increasing privacy but not by too much.

So, Android will soon employ “privacy-focused replacements” for its current tool used to identify a user’s device, the advertising ID. Further, the firm plans to eliminate cross-app tracking as well, but not to the same extent Apple did in 2021. While these improvements aren’t ideal from a consumer privacy protection lens, any improvement is better than nothing.

Android OS powers about 85% of all smartphones globally, so if you think Apple’s changes disrupted the market (i.e., Meta losing $240bn in market cap in a single day), just wait.

 

Addressing Labor Shortages in a $100B Industry

Graze Feb 18th 2022

The $100B commercial landscaping industry is plagued by high labor costs and low margins. But that’s about to change, thanks to Graze.

They’ve created a 100% electric commercial lawn mowing solution that saves companies up to 50% in labor costs, can increase profit margins by 3-5x, and cuts fuel costs by up to 75%.

Built by a team with deep technical expertise in robotics and world-class investors, you can learn more and invest in Graze here.

 

 

 

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What's Ripe

DoorDash ($DASH) — Now, I’m sure we all have way too strong of opinions on the best food delivery service, but one thing is for sure — the fight for market share has been great for consumers. Last quarter, it turned out to be great for DoorDash as well.

In Wednesday’s earnings report, the delivery service firm posted record order numbers and strong revenue growth, raking in $1.3bn while losing $0.45/sh on that. Revenue beat, earnings missed, but those deliver numbers sent shares up 21% at open, finishing up 10.7% to close the day.

Walmart ($WMT) — Amazon’s grandfather reported some killer numbers yesterday, delivering strong results despite the supply chain sh*tshow and irritating inflation. The company’s “focus on value” excited investors despite Walmart literally being one of the companies, if not the most, impacted by inflation.

The retail giant delivered $1.53/sh on $152bn in sales vs. expectations of $1.50 on $151bn expected, sending shares up 4.0%.

Oh, and in case you’re wondering: yes, they still took in more revenue than Amazon in 2021… by a long shot.

 

What's Rotten

Palantir ($PLTR) — Peter Thiel has not had a great 2022. His most well-known companies, Meta and Palantir, are both down well over 35% each since Andy Cohen went on that drunken rant on live TV.

Yesterday alone, Palantir lost 15.8% on a dumpster fire disguised as an earnings call. The firm’s mild revenue beat wasn’t enough to make up for missed earnings, registering $0.02/sh vs. $0.04 expected.

The rest of the call fell broadly in line with expectations, but a guidance of 30% annual revenue growth through 2025 sounds pretty sweet to me.

Nvidia ($NVDA) — Much like Mr. Thiel above, semiconductors have also not had a great 2022.

Down 12% YTD before yesterday, Nvidia was looking to turn things around with their Q4 earnings, but even beating both top and bottom line couldn’t get the job done. Instead, shares sank 7.6% despite delivering EPS of $1.32 on $7.6bn in sales vs. the $1.22/sh on $7.4bn expected.

They really had it all. Strong numbers, even stronger growth, and Hercules-strong guidance, but the firm couldn’t overcome Wall Street’s astronomical expectations.

 

Thought Banana

Miamoney — If Miami’s goal really is to become the new New York, they’re certainly well on their way there. The city has taken a risky step in pursuing that goal and has officially become the least affordable city in the entire United States.

According to real estate analytics firm RealtyHop, the average Miami household would have to shell out 78.7% of their income towards housing costs. If that sounds insane, it’s because it is. A (non-scumbag) financial advisor would tell you to keep housing costs in the range of 25-30% of your earnings.

With its 78.0% average ratio of housing costs to income, New York has been bumped to second while Los Angeles slid to third. While the median home prices in NY and LA are much higher than in Miami ($970k and $925k, respectively), workers in Miami earn much less than their Northern and Western urban peers. In Miami, the average person earns $43,401/yr while living in a home that costs $589k.

Maybe Miamians should take a page out of their mayor’s playbook and take their pay in BTC. That worked out great for him…

Wise Investor Says

“It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.” — George Soros

 

Happy Investing,

Patrick & The Daily Peel Team

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