A friend who is a self proclaimed technical analyst feels the djia parallels a previous crash and we are in for bad times soon. I tend to disagree based on the macro effects of cheap money etc. keeping this boat afloat. So now I need to iron down the terms of a wager. What do you guys think? DJIA won't dip below 15,000 for 30 days sound good?
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No offense but your friend sounds like a sucker ripe for the picking. That chart only goes through, what, June/June of 2013? Just looking at the DJIA from that point on shows that it no longer follows the so-called parallel of 1928/1929. The DJIA not dropping below 15,000 in one month's time sounds like a pretty safe bet on your part. If I were you I'd choose something super embarrassing if he loses, just to take advantage of an easy mark.
haha thanks, good to hear a similar view.
Does this "technical analyst" know what happened in 1929?
Bet the ranch and your kids.
I wouldn't say its impossible, just not probable. It took the financial system to get toward the edge of collapsing before the DOW started printing 500+ point down days.
The economic climate in the late 20's isn't nearly what it is these days. It's like comparing apples and oranges. Now, nothing is impossible but I've seen much worse bets out there.
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