The Infamous Probes | The Daily Peel | 12/7/21

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Market Snapshot

Last week took an L, but today we bounced back. Markets came back to life yesterday with a helluva day across the board. The Dow led the day with a 1.87% gain while the S&P followed gaining 1.17% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.93%.

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Let’s get into it.

 

Macro Monkey Says

Regulatory SPACdown — Okay, this was the easiest call in human history. The SPAC boom, as it were, has brought about speculation of SEC violations in every which way, as usually happens anytime something cool and new comes onto the scene. In 2021, nothing embodied this more SPACs, and man were the speculators right.

Two of the most popular names in the SPAC boom have come under heavy SEC fire just this week. One is a hopeful social media site organized by none other than former President Donald Trump while the other is one of the most valuable car companies in the world. Let’s see what’s happening.

$DWAC is the planned acquirer of Trump Media Technology Group, aka TMTG, that took Trump’s social media firm public earlier this year. Although the deal has yet to be completed, the group is already under fire. Today, the SEC and FINRA announced probes into the company to investigate potential “stock trading that preceded the public announcement of the October 20, 2021 merger agreement.” Not a great look. This investigation comes just two days after the SPAC announced a +$1bn PIPE (private investment in public equity) that could have raised some regulatory eyebrows.

Lucid Motors ($LCID) is joining $DWAC and TMTG in hot water from the SEC. The regulatory agency has announced an investigation into “certain projections and statements” made earlier this year in relation to the SPAC deal. As we’ve learned from Theranos and myriad others, making bold claims and not backing those up is a recipe for disaster. Lucid executives must’ve missed that class. Anyway, not too much information is known, but as we’ve made clear in The Peel before, there are many bad kinds of probes, but none worse than one from the SEC.

Both stocks closed down heavy today. Tough today to be a SPAC.

Digital Currencies — If Bob Dylan had to rewrite one of his greatest songs ever today, it would have to be called Times They Are A-Crazy. No microcosm represents that fact more than the digital asset and cryptocurrency market.

Falling nearly 32% in little under a monthBTC and it’s pals have been getting absolutely rocked lately. Yesterday BTC was dancing around the ever-important $50k line on a 3.0% return in the last 24hrs. Never letting a good dip go to waste, the wildcard President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, just had to buy the dip...for his entire country...from his phone. This isn’t speculation, no, this man literally confirmed it on Twitter.

As far as BTC’s pals go, they’re basically in the same boat. Things have been rough lately, but yesterday made a bit of a comeback. ETH is back up 5.1% after declining over 21% over a similar time period. BSC, the third largest digital currency, remains down over 3% in the last week, but is staging a comeback too, gaining over 7.2% in just the last 24hrs.

While the volatility is obvious, the dips and rebounds experienced in the cryptocurrency market only solidify its position as a legitimate means of financial dealing. The resiliency demonstrated is remarkable - just imagine if the S&P 500 saw falls like this, the world might catch on fire. Plus, bonus points to crypto bc as far as I know, there isn’t any Central Bank DAO’s coming in to save the day.

 

Monthly Performance

 

Despite being a red month, November saw the WSO Alpha portfolio positioned well against the indices. 

  • Overall, the portfolio lost 3.93%
  • 3 long positions were added to, with an additional $58,012.10 invested
  • 1 new long position was opened, investing $38,107.50
  • 1 long position was decreased for a gain of 97.6% on those shares
  • The broader market lagged with major categories trending downwards throughout the month

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What's Ripe

Del Taco Restaurants ($TACO) — Everybody loves tacos, but yesterday, no one liked tacos more than Wall Street. Shares in the Mexican food maker Del Taco spiked over 66% on news that the firm is being acquired by West Coast burger slinger Jack in the Box. The $575mm deal will bring together two big dawgs of the QSR industry and maybe, just maybe, this could be some motivation to finally get these restaurants on the East Coast. 

Alibaba ($BABA) — Alibaba got a dose of much, much needed relief yesterday, gaining 10.4%. Shares popped on apparently a chilling out over the risk associated with investing in China. Specifically, DiDi’s delisting turned out to be a bit bullish for other Chinese names. The forced delisting came with an explanation that American shares would not be destroyed and would instead be converted into “freely traded shares” on an international exchange.” So now, investors have realized that if (READ: when) other Chinese names delist, it’s not necessarily the end of the world.

 

What's Rotten

Moderna ($MRNA) — Apparently, analysts like to assign animals to specific market trends, invoking the kangaroo as of late. As mind numbing as that is, it is perhaps most accurate when talking about Moderna. Up a ton one day, down a ton another, and yesterday happened to be the latter. Shares plummeted 13.5% as the flight to safety continues while the market discovers more and more that no one really cares about Omicron.  

Nvidia ($NVDA) — After the year they’ve had, Nvidia can hardly complain about yesterday’s 2.1% loss, but what they can complain about is the reason behind it. Shares are up well over 120% in just 12 months, but as of yesterday, the stock has officially entered correction territory being 10% off its 52-week and all-time high. The chipmaker's acquisition of chip designer Arm from Softbank has been blocked, or at least, halted by the FTC. Shares initially fell 6.2% while Nvidia’s homie AMD suffered too with a 3.1% loss. Intel, strangely enough, actually kicked ass with a 3.5% gain.

 

Thought Banana:

Media’s New Mainstream — If you’ve taken online quizzes to find out what kind of bread you are or how you would’ve died in Murder, She Wrote, well then you’re all too familiar with Buzzfeed. The online entertainment and news site that also has an affinity for surprisingly irrelevant quizzes went public today via SPAC in a test of how Wall Street values and views digital-first media brands.

Merging with 890 5th Avenue Partners, Buzzfeed ($BZFD) opened with a handsome valuation of $350mm, up well over 16% in its first 30mins of trading only to finish down 11.2%.

While it’s interesting to see how the Street digests digital native media semi-empires, the more interesting lens comes when considering new developments in the media market. I don’t know about you, but every time I see cable news, I begin to lose massive amounts of brain cells and suddenly want to start a riot. Millennials and the (way cooler) next generation of Zoomers have made clear cable news doesn’t cut it, voting with their eyeballs for independent, digital-native coverage of newsworthy events. The rise of sites like Medium and Substack speak to this even more, showing that small-scale unadulterated coverage can attract views (and dollars) in a big way.

Vox Media, Vice Media, Mashable, and others that compete less directly like Morning Brew and Axios, will all be watching the IPO, steeped in anticipation to see if going public is all it's cracked up to be. Word is still out on a Daily Peel IPO.

Wise Investor Says

“Don’t panic. The time to sell is before the crash, not after.” — Sir John Templeton

 

Happy Investing,

Patrick & The Daily Peel Team

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