These Brands Are Flipping the Bird at MuskTwit | The Daily Peel | 11/4/22

Nov 4, 2022 | Peel #331

 

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Market Snapshot

General Mills, Volkswagen, Pfizer, GM…

Advertisers are taking a wait-and-see approach before they spend another dime on Twitter.

Elon’s been whining about the backlash over an $8/month checkmark, but if ad partners start pulling out, this could turn into an all-time bad investment.


Banana Bits


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Macro Monkey Says

No Pivot for You

What if I told you hedge funds paid AI companies to analyze JPow’s micro expressions yesterday?

Even with the help of robots, investors struggled to get a read on his thoughts about further rate hikes after a 4th-straight 75-pointer, but the theme is that a pivot ain’t happening.

  • He initially said that the Fed would keep in mind that prior hikes still need to work their way thru the system
  • Then he laid down the hammer, saying, “the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.”
  • It’s clear the Fed is ready to crank rates too high rather than not high enough, since the latter could mean persistent inflation
  • The odds of a FIFTH STRAIGHT 75 pointer in December doubled after his comments

Meme of the day

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What's Ripe

Crocs ($CROX) ↑ 14.24% ↑

  • $CROX are cool again, and Q3 results blew estimates outta the water
  • Brand partnerships with the likes of Cinnamon Toast Crunch and Disney have people continuing to buy these allegedly-edible shoes

Under Armour ($UAA) ↑ 12.13% ↑

  • Nike’s ugly stepsister has been through the wringer in the last few years, but it’s not dead yet
  • Apparel revenue was down, but a partnership with Chef Curry helped boost shoe sales in the quarter

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What's Rotten

MGM Resorts ($MGM) ↓ 10.46% ↓

  • Veteran Peel readers know the story with MGM—it’s all about Macau
  • The Chinese island changed gaming laws in the quarter, forcing MGM to swallow a $1.2 billion charge

Coinbase ($COIN) ↓ 8.09% ↓

  • The crypto winter rolls on, and so does $COIN’s collapse
  • Its top line is in freefall, and it’s on track for a half-billion-dollar loss this year. If crypto stays dead throughout the Fed’s tightening cycle, look out below

Data Peel

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Source


Thought Banana

Next Crisis, Let’s Up the Stimmies

Now that we’re somewhat removed from the latest global economic clusterf*ck, we can compare the C-19 response to that after the GFC.

  • Of the $5 trillion or so in emergency 2020 spending, only 1.8 went directly to households, with the rest getting swallowed by businesses and governments
  • Uncle Sam wasn’t as generous after the GFC, and the stimulus took a lot longer to arrive
  • Australia went hard early after the GFC and sent checks to every taxpayer, and avoided a recession as a result
  • Sending the bulk of stimmies to businesses can create zombie companies while sending checks directly to people ensures that actual households are kept afloat

The big question: Whenever the next crisis inevitably comes, will the U.S. point the money printer at households rather than companies?


Banana Brain Teaser

Yesterday — I fly without wings, I cry without eyes. What am I?

Clouds.

Today — It’s 50 bananas off the Consulting Interview Course for the first 25 correct respondents. LFG!

What grows in grass and shrinks in water?

Shoot us your guesses at [email protected] with the subject line Banana Brain Teaser or simply click here to reply!



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