• Pending home sales made economist estimates look like monkeys throwing darts as January figures came in over 8x higher
• Pfizer sees a gem in Seagen as it seeks to drop $30bn on its latest acquisition
• Wall Street’s parents are considering not allowing them to hang out at China’s house anymore
• I feel like I grew up alongside the Brexit deal at this point, so seeing it reach this milestone hits a soft spot

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Durable Goods

In the beginning, bad news was bad news. Then, for a good few months, not too long ago, bad economic data suddenly became good news. And right now, the economy has no idea what exactly good or bad is anymore.

Economic data is weird. So, when we get a string of jacked data like we did yesterday morning, particularly at a time when JPow is actively seeking to reign in the economy, nobody really seems to know how to take it.

For example, let’s take a look at durable goods. Officially and nerdily called “U.S. Core Capital Goods Orders,” aka “durable goods,” the Commerce department dropped the latest numbers yesterday, and boy, did Mr. Market have something to say about it.

Immediately on the release, markets spiked to start the day, jumping well over 1% on a 5-to-1 breadth thrust at the NYSE. But, not long after, equities began to drift back to reality as the now-apparently economic gospel of “good data = more rate hikes” came back into play. Don’t get me wrong, we were still up on the day, but Mr. Market’s severe insecurity was even more on display than usual.

Sure, headline durable goods orders sank by 4.5% on the year, but that was largely due to orders for airplanes and other aircraft falling off a cliff. Remember, economists love to be exclusive, so they tend to focus on core durable goods orders, which excludes exactly those aircraft. This reading happened to surge by 0.8% for the month (or 5.3% annually), far exceeding expectations of 0.1% and obliterating December’s 0.3% decline. Adjusting for these big-ticket items reveals that businesses overall have increased their spending as we roll into Q1 of 2023.

Add that to the list of things no one saw coming this year. As Jamie Dimon and Neel Kashkari sound the alarms over an alleged “hurricane” on the horizon, the people running businesses on the ground seem to be fine.

Now, of course, core durable goods figures and the headline number aren’t exactly adjusted for inflation. With wholesale inflation clocking in around 6% for the year ended in January, much of the increase in the core metric can absolutely be attributed to higher prices.

But still. You don’t get beats on expectations like that due solely to inflation. Now, keep in mind this is a spike in durable goods and that goods are just that—goods.

At the same time we get this report, inflation data is starting to show goods inflation succumbing, primarily on a monthly basis. The semi-broad retracement in price acceleration for these items could contribute to higher business demand, but the far more important part is exactly what we said earlier: businesses are still buying.

Buuuuttttt, of course, we can’t just take the win. Things like this keep JPow up at night, so he’ll certainly be thinking about how this changes the rate hike picture when he lays down on his JPillow.

Fisker ($FSR) ↑ 30.28% ↑

• The EV startup that investors have seemingly deemed is just not dope enough to sit at the cool kids’ table with Tesla, Rivian, Nio, and Lucid sure made them regret that decision yesterday.
• The Cali-based EV maker dropped earnings yesterday and, taking a bit of an unconventional route, stormed up nearly 1/3rd of last week’s value.
• By “unconventional route,” we, of course, mean by missing estimates like Happy Gilmore misses a putt. Revenue of $306k was nearly 90% off estimates, while a loss of $0.54/sh was almost as foul.
• Still, the company managed to sweet talk investors by reminding them that their 2023 plans are on track (aka, unchanged) and letting us know that 3,000 more suckers had ordered their car. A win is a…win??

Tesla ($TSLA) ↑ 5.46% ↑

• Taking a look at a real company, Tesla (yes, this is the “real” company of the two) shares gained for an actual reason yesterday. Now that’s a win!
• Reuter’s hit Elon with the perfect alley-oop yesterday, coming out with a report detailing that the company’s Brandenburg, Germany plant (aka “Giga Berlin”) is well ahead of production targets.
• See, the above has 65,000 orders total; Giga Berlin alone, per Reuter’s report, produces 4,000 cars/day, filling all of Fisker’s orders in just over 16 days. Investors took the day to celebrate, sending shares back over $200.