$1.2tn Upgrade — Wow, the U.S. Federal government actually stopped talking and finally did a thing for once! We can debate the effects until we’re blue in the face, but round of applause for the reminder that sometimes, just sometimes, our federal overlords actually do their jobs. 

President Joey B officially signed the $1.2tn Infrastructure bill. We recently hashed out some details of the bill, and as little changed from the draft of the legislation, what we can talk about is expert-anticipated political effects now that the bill has been given the green light.

Recently, some of our state homies had important state and local elections. Notably, Virginia and New Jersey held gubernatorial elections, in which Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy kept the NJ crown and newcomer Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, stole the throne from an anticipated Democratic victory in Virginia. Both states voted blue in last year’s presidential election (remember that?), but these recent elections for both states showed roughly a 10% swing in favor of Republicans. We’re bipartisan at the Peel, but many analysts anticipate the lack of impactful legislation at the Federal level, given a Democratic controlled Executive and Legislative branch, soured the taste of the party in the mouth of the voters.

With the infrastructure bill, that very well could change. A certified ton of Congressional seats are up for reelection next fall. With looming questions over capital gains and other forms of potential tax reform, this is gonna be a big one. We got plenty of time until then, but certainly something to keep your eye on.

Gold Looks...Golden — The U.S. dollar has been around since 1792. 229 years is a long time, but it has nothing on the 2,600+ year history of gold as a currency, often leading investors to fly to the “safe haven” shiny rock when dollars start sh*tting the bed.

To be fair, USD has been in an uptrend since mid-May, but inflation would beg to differ. As our national currency loses value in terms of purchasing power via inflation, investors often flock to gold to avoid having their dry powder become worth less over time. You may have heard that inflation is running hot at the moment, and wouldn’t you know it, gold prices are approaching a 5-month high. Shares in popularly traded Gold ETF GLD have ripped 5% in just under two weeks, a big move for this market, and a clear indication of Wall Street’s inflationary jitters.

Of course, it just so happens that shares of GLD are down 0.72% on the day, with strong retail spending data showing that despite rising prices, Americans are still in a buying frenzy. Is buying random sh*t an inflation hedge too?

It's a Cellar's Market.