Analyst vs Associate Lateral Timing

I’m a first-year analyst at a boutique investment bank in a tier 3 city, and my long-term goal is to lateral to a name-brand firm in New York. My current bank has strong deal flow, so I’m gaining solid execution experience, but comp is below market and deal sizes are relatively small. Management has indicated an intent to promote me to associate in roughly 2.5–3.5 years (i.e., 2–3 years from now).

My concern with lateraling as an analyst is that I would need to re-establish my reputation and adapt to a new firm’s practices and deal dynamics, likely on much larger and more complex transactions. Specifically, I’m weighing two issues: (1) the relative ease and availability of lateral opportunities at analyst versus associate, and (2) the risk of failing to secure an associate promotion if I lateral as an analyst.

Given these trade-offs, is it generally worth accepting the risk of lateraling now as an analyst, or is it prudent to remain at my current firm, earn the associate promotion, and then explore lateral opportunities?