Economic Cycle Research Institute now predicts a new recession is unavoidable.
How many ppl here think it is the case?
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not being a fucking idiot states that something which never ended cannot begin anew
ouch
We'll be fucked for a long time. Personally, I don't think the economy will ever be what it was circa 2006 due to the ever-shrinking middle class. I also think no amount of job stimulus packages will reverse that trend.
The US economy NEVER left the recession......The media and gov econ agencies only made it appear so. Slight of hand is the trick they do best. First it was great recession, then great stagnation....they just cant seems to bring themselves to depression. Why? because people dont want to hear this. There are signs of depression everywhere. Time to face reality.
Shutup magickarp. A lot of guys at work think is '09 all over again.
Very true, however... what I was saying is that it looks like '09 all over again with the exception of better corporate balance sheets. Consumers are not much better off because most of their balance sheets are made up of real estate which sucks so not much has improved from consumers deleveraging. So in general, businesses are not growing as fast --> companies and sponsors holding onto cash for the better deals --> less deal activity.
some good articles on www.themacrohedge.com on this.
hey who are hte people that decide if we are /are not in a recession?
hint it isn't hte president or federal reserve
Personally the whole definition of recession is kind of dumb. In the U.S. recessions are marked by the National Bureau of Economic Research (a non-profit org). Recession - two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP. Meaning we only know we are in a recession when things are at the worse or finally starting to get better.
Wow, I didn't know things are that bad Economic Cycle Research Institute now predicts a new recession is unavoidable. I remember early in the year, when economists were saying U.S. had very slim chances of going into a recession. Then it became greater chance around June/July. Shit, not this again. 2008-2009 was not fun.
I agree that I don't believe we actually left the great recession. I've held off putting a lot in investments because I felt the whole "recovery" was a little hollow.
Two quarters isn't NBER's definition - they look at a number of factors. If they simply did the two quarters, why exactly would they be required to make the pronouncement?
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