Best Sector to Cover as Career Banker
My thoughts: 1) healthcare services 2) software (AI risk or tailwind?) 3) business services 4)industrials - all have lots of sponsor deals with both large and smaller opportunities
Healthcare services - super stable, good PE, easy to become an expert
Software - best business model, super broad, AI may kill some but also may make new businesses
Business services - super broad, lots of subsectors, PE interest.
Industrials - very broad. Downside is hard to become an expert since so many businesses are kind of different
Unless global economy trends change; it's software. Software is simply just a bigger % of economy than others, is growing still, and is likely to keep growing as AI increases applications of software. These large tech companies are sitting on billions of dry powder that they will spend to acquire the latest innovation and/or competitor semi-frequently. There is also financing they always need; and a bunch of consolidation that regulary happens in such a winner-takes all world such as software. As a software banker, AI is your friend because it just means your sector is larger and thus more deal activity.
HC has the issue of regulatory risk, a lot of uproar about PE in HC already, industrials is declining as a % of GDP, etc. everything has upsides and downsides but tech offers the largest risk-adjusted return.
What about the argument people are making that Saas is dead?
No one is arguing that SaaS is dead, the big argument is the opposite that SaaS and AI will take over the world. The PE issue is that a lot of PE firms overpaid for undifferentiated SaaS platforms, None of this really matters for bankers. As long as software continues to grow, there will be M&A and financings as companies will be transcating as software continues to grow it's share of the global economy pie.
SaaS is the biggest beneficiaries of AI at the category level. more companies adopt AI products, the more sectoral growth we see as they are adopting software sold as a service. That’s a great setup for bankers, and a more complicated one for PE tech investors who have to underwrite in a rapidly evolving space. At the end of the day, I would much rather be in the growing parts of the economy, not the shrinking parts.
del
Curious about FIG as career banker given the specialization and how big the industry is
Decent spot but it depends which part you cover. Hard to pivot out.
Software (huge TAM), Business Services (super broad), Healthcare (Services and Biotech), Energy (consolidation + always will have financing needs)
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