Consequences of CS
If UBS absorbs CS & chooses to retain certain CS UK teams (perhaps certain CS MDs insisting on keeping entire teams?), and if certain CS UK mid & junior-level full-time bankers are retained in the combined group otherwise, chances of summer internship conversion for UBS undergrads are drastically reduced. Would it then be advisable/somewhat wiser to renege the UBS offer in favour of another already-signed London MM IB summer offer for better conversion chances? Be brutal in your answers.
Yes
Another source of dilemma is perhaps difference in potential for PE exits between UBS & an MM
versus no PE ever because your offer got taken away
Bump
analysts will now be forced to work in FP&A and live in queens.
Lol
What's FP&A in this context
Financial planning & analysis - basically corporate finance / not M&A related
That’s not how it works.
The bank doesn’t weigh summer analyst offers for full time start in 2024 vs its current pool of analysts. It’s just not equivalent.
Full time offers are based on the number of first year analysts the bank think it will need the year after the summer internship. The number of analyst 2 and 3s on the desks during the summer internship is somewhat irrelevant. By next year, they’ll be promoted, leave for a better job, get fired, etc. They won’t be junior resources anymore.
So when things are busy at the top of the cycle and senior people are going “yeah we’ll keep growing forever from the best fees year ever”, every one gets an offer. Then fees drop to a trough year and 20% of the class gets fired
The year after when the fees have dropped to their lowest in 20 years the bank’s management will say “for what do you need these resources? Let’s offer jobs to 25% of them”
By the time the analysts hit the desk, markets are working again, dealflow is ridiculous, and every 2nd year associate at pwc is hired by goldman because there are not enough IB analysts in the market for lateral hires.
Solid HR planning
Saw this play out at my bank. My class (SA 2020) had lower than average return rates because of COVID and then had to hire a bunch of laterals (lots of no-name IB, big 4, etc.) through 2021. The SA 2021 class was tiny because they were recruited during COVID so they hired a bunch after the internship to start in the 2022 FT class. Those kids are now barely doing work because deal flow has been significantly lower than past few years. I'd imagine SA 2023 will now have low rates and banks will just lateral hire duds again whenever activity resumes.
Vicuous cycle
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