Given the current underperformance of European banks and the downsizing of IBDs (e.g. DB, Barclays), how is advisory (M&A and equity/ debt underwriting) going to develop in the future?
Are independent advisors taking over?
(This applies in particular to European banks)
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Personally I think industry wise I think definitely EBs (+ european boutiques like Robey Warshaw) + US BB will take over more market share that DB/UBS lose.
Not sure how specific firms will do but if I had to guess DB will always have a presence (german pride + solid historic performance) in EMEA especially with European lev fin although with the piss poor balance sheet I think it'll take at least 2-3 more years of restructuring before they think about any growth. CS is still a strong player in IB esp EMEA and the CEO just said they won't be downsizing anymore (albeit I believe he was referring to S&T more so). I think Barclays wants to continue its investment into IB and grow the group, have seen couple of hires within Chemicals/Industrials/HC in the US so I'd reckon they'd be continuing that for Europe (not sure which groups in particular though just making a guess). UBS I have no idea with all the focus on PWM/AM I'm surprised they're still decently strong with IB.
I think couple 3rd tier firms like BNP/Soc Gen/HSBC will be interesting. I think in the next couple of years some will completely be even more irrelevant (Soc Gen) whereas others (HSBC) have a chance maybe to gain a bit more market share.
Just my opinion based on what I'm hearing from buddies of mine in different firms and reading the news. Then again based in the US so I could be 100% wrong.
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