How long does it take to hear back after a lateral first round?

Hey all, looking for perspective from anyone who’s lateraled into banking.

I’m a buy-side analyst with about 2 years of experience in valuations and portfolio monitoring, trying to move into IB. About 10 days ago, I got a referral and had a first round with a senior banker at the bank. It went well. He asked when I could start, said they’re hoping to fill the seat before the holidays, and mentioned I might also fit a couple of other coverage groups. He said he’d set up a conversation with the group I’m most interested in.

A few days later, an application appeared under my name in their portal. I didn’t submit it, so I’m assuming HR created it. I sent the recruiter a polite follow-up, but haven’t heard back from anyone.

Questions for those who’ve been through it:

• Is this kind of silence normal in IB recruiting? 
• Does a recruiter-created application usually mean things are still moving?
• Should my next follow-up go to the banker directly, and how long should I wait?
• With Thanksgiving and year-end coming, are these processes usually still alive, or do they quietly die or slip to January?