Lateralling in the age of AI
I’ve received a lateral offer for an ASO position at a top BB. It’s a greate opportunity, especially as I’m currently based in a weak office at a MM firm (RBC/WF/Deutsche).
That said, I’ve been thinking a lot about AI automation in banking. Banks are investing heavily in AI tools such as GPT, Copilot, Mozaic, or Rogo, and firms like GS and JPM are even developing their own proprietary AI platforms.
My theory is that in late 2026 or 2027, Banks will probably implement a large scale performance and efficiency screening enabled by AI productivity gains. My assumption is that less than half of analysts and associates will survive this screening. For those who don’t make the cut, re-entering the industry may be almost impossible. Those very lucky who remain will probably enjoy higher salaries, faster promotion paths, and much better deal exposure.
In that context, surviving this screening would be critical for anyone aiming for a long-term career in banking. While I’m tempted to accept the new offer, I worry that moving now may leave me less well positioned when this inflection point arrives. Staying where I am, with a four-year track record and consistently strong performance reviews, may give me better odds of making it through.
I use Rogo and copilot frequently and honestly I don’t find them impressive at all. It will take at least another 6 or 7 years for AI to become a real threat to analysts, let alone associates.
As long as you still see banks employing people in roles like EAs, conflicts, compliance, audit, COO functions, etc.. you’re more than safe.
Are you currently an analyst or associate at your current shop? If you’re already an associate, then would stay as you are likely more shielded from layoffs given your institutional knowledge/track record
Imagine not taking that GS offer in 1988 because you thought Microsoft excel was going to replace analysts.
Can 1988 Excel draft an IPO prospectus in 45 seconds?
Some people are very delusional. We have never seen anything like this before. This will definitely reduce headcount dramatically.
I can tell you’re either an outsider or a junior that’s buying all that marketing shit DJ d sol is selling lmao. The drafts are not good. That’s the point. I use AI everyday at my firm trying to find ways to take off time from work generation and I end up replacing that same time reviewing and correcting the AI’s work. Yes, even on IPO prospectus drafts. Get a grip
Imagine being so bitch-made you let the fear of a computer stop you from accepting a top-tier job role because you prematurely accept that you’re inferior to it. Dude, if you’re competent you don’t need to worry about AI.
Don’t look down and Leap forward.
Ultimately, the more reps you get, the better you will be….
I don’t think AI is “there” yet, although the tech is evolving fast.
I also doubt we’ll see an “inflection point” but rather a gradual decline in people (e.g. people leaving and not getting a replacement, smaller SA classes, etc)
If the opportunity is good, just take it. AI is beyond everybody’s control, and it’s not like staying will guarantee your ultimate survival.
Honestly used to be concerned about it but we’re already starting to see the “productivity gains” at my BB lost with more “creative pages” as MDs are insistent we show clients we “did work for them” in meetings. Used to think AI was going to improve a ton of IB a year ago, now I’m pretty convinced MDs are going to realize it can be used to make a ton of pages a lot quicker and more detailed and then ask for that to be used in meetings.
Cycling never gets easier, you just go faster
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