Mortgage Trading - RPL/NPL vs NO

I’m an Associate at a BB where we perform asset diligence (e.g. property value, collateral, credit, title and etc) for re-performing/non-performing mortgages. I was offered a role to support our New Originations desk, and because it matches my prior background in Originations, my skills and interest are more aligned to that. Since we’re ramping up in volume, I can provide a lot of impact on that business both from experience and technical background.

However, I’m hesitant to return to Originations because in a rising rate environment, as rates go up, volume goes down, and there’s nothing left to trade. I came to the RPL/NPL world to learn more about the business and there’s still a lot for me to learn. Many of my peers from Originations were either swamped with work or out of a job, whereas the RPL/NPL side seems more stable.

With that being said, how do you all see the market, exit opps and etc for the short term (1-3 years) and long term (3-5 years)? I would like to eventually work on our desk, and I think this opportunity where we constantly work closely with our desk would allow me to do that.

As a take away question- is it worth a lateral move with no additional comp from a team that I love working with, for more work in an asset class that interests me but is inherently unstable?