Outlook on IB Return Offers (2027 SA class) – AI impact?
Curious to get perspectives from current analysts/associates and anyone who just went through 2027 SA recruiting.
With all the recent AI developments (e.g., Anthropic leadership publicly suggesting junior analyst-level tasks are increasingly automatable), how are people thinking about the medium-term outlook for return offers?
Specifically:
• Do you expect firms to become more conservative with return offer rates over the next 2–3 years?
• Are groups already quietly tightening class sizes or adjusting long-term headcount planning?
• Or is this largely overblown given client-facing execution, modeling judgment, and deal process management still require heavy human involvement?
I understand AI today isn’t replacing analysts - but three years ago the current capabilities also seemed unrealistic. Curious how people inside the industry are underwriting junior talent needs over the next cycle.
I’m scared
Basically it will hollow out the bottom 20% of the analyst class as AI are probably better than them (some of the analyst are atrocious and make more mistakes than AI)
If you are summer analyst who knows technicals, produce decks quickly and error free, with good attitude, you will be fine. I have seen analysts that some times make me think how they got the iob and those will be gone in the next few years as AI develop further.
Moral of the story: keep improving and know how to use AI. The bottom performers will get cut given bottom bucket analysts’ output are similar or worse than current AI
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