Revenue Projections during/shortly after Recession
Hello all,
I'm currently working on a homework and part of the assignment is to do a DCF. I have very limited data to use for the revenue projections (ie: I only have financial statement data, no underlying sales volume/pricing/etc.)
Normally I'd look at average revenue growth for the past few years and try to estimate an average revenue growth rate. The problem is that this assignment takes place in 2010, so the past few years are pretty shaky. Revenue drops from 2007 > 2008 > 2009 and then starts to recover in 2010. I have no historic data before 2007 to look at growth rates before 2007. I also feel like the 2009 > 2010 increase is artificially large and not indicative of stable growth.
Any thoughts on how to develop some worthwhile revenue growth assumptions here? My first thought is to do some googling for economic growth rates for the years leading up to the recession as a base case. Would S&P 500 pricing trends be an alright indicator of this? Any other directions?
Thanks,
-Pickle
How close is 2010 revenues to 2007? My high level answer is just have the revenues bounce back to 2007 levels by 2012 and then grow the top line at GDP (or grow the top line at > or GDP depending on how closely the industry tracks the economy).
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