Useless jogger in team …. How long til get fired and how does it work??

I have a useless jogger in the team I work in …. They’re an analyst….

They’re on a performance review program with HR meetings every month and they got sh1tty reviews at half and end of year (A2A cycle is summer I think? Anyone confirms?).. they ‘ve not been promoted to the next level I think as the other As we’re told they would be promoted this week

Everything is hush hush when I’ve asked MDs about the plan for more juniors and the sh1t work this person does.. but they did put a job open for someone at that level that the person is

How does it work from a HR level to fire someone at this Junior level ? Is this jogger going to get fired ? Is it usually when their cycle ends for analyst promotes? When does the cycle end?

Thank you

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