My guess is that if global instability rises, I think weapons sales will be a big driver of US's and possibly other economies in a way similar to tech in the early 2010s. But to be absolutely honest, I'm just asking to know for my career and like what I chose to spend my time on in terms of work.
| +44 | I wish I went to an Ivy | 24 | 1d |
| +37 | How tall are you? | 35 | 2d |
| +27 | EpsteinBooks Dispute: Child Molestation Optimization Process | 4 | 3d |
| +19 | Favorite slop bowl for lunch? | 18 | 19h |
| +16 | Is there a solution to this spam? | 5 | 2d |
| +11 | Deldeldel | 8 | 3d |
| +10 | Andrew Tate was arrested. Thoughts? | 9 | 16h |
| Rough Breakup | 8 | 1d | |
| +8 | Ferda | 1 | 2d |
| +6 | Best UE/Seamless orders? | 1 | 4d |
Career Resources
Get instant access to lessons taught by experienced private equity pros and bulge bracket investment bankers including financial statement modeling, DCF, M&A, LBO, Comps and Excel Modeling.
What do you mean pick up? Weapon sales are already a huge proportion of how the US, Isreal, U.k., China, and Russia make money.
The economy is humming but has been poor for the middle class and lower for a while. Diversify your income: job, CRE, and Brokerage. My CRE port has been stalled and crappy for 2.5 years. But I made a killing in my portfolio, 38% last year and 17.5% this year. My job I make ehh money 175-225k a year, and it's stalled as well due to the lack of sales, but some things will go down and others will go up.
Also, I forgot to mention that a big portion of the stock market is volatility, with big swings up and down, driven mainly by the big 5, or, in reality, 10 companies. At some point, they will go into correction territory, but other industries will be coming out of the consumer spending downturn we are seeing play out now.
I also have been saying on here and elsewhere that the RE market will have a correction, it'll be regional more dramatic in some places than other. But look at the Midwest and Western regions right now in terms of home sales and increases in insurance and property taxes hitting middle to upper income earners.
For the industry roles I'm going for, the rates need to get cut from the Fed to start seeing drastic improvements in deal flow / hiring. Despite that, there is still hiring going on. Even had an early round interview this week with a job that fits every criteria I want for a post MBA role. Realistically, I know I likely will still be looking for another 6 months and hopefully land a job by early winter (Nov - Dec '24).
That being said, realisticlaly I think end of next year - we will start seeing improvements. Not getting my hopes up for this year.
I don't think the economy is bad exactly. Sure it isn't great like the media keeps saying, but it is also not terrible like the other part of the media keeps saying. What will trigger a recovery is when the FED finally admits that the FED Funds rate has zero real impact on inflation and we just learn to realize that higher than target inflation is here to stay due to fundamental changes in the global economy and the shrinking risk on investment capital base.
Ironically, I think what will cause the economy to pick up over the medium-term is a big slowdown in the short-term.
The prevailing narrative overall, whether you agree or disagree with it, is that the economy is doing great and unemployment is low so there's not really much need to cut rates especially since inflation hasn't fully come down to Fed's target yet. But, I posit that:
1. The economy is not doing as great as people think it is (acknowledging there are certain industries, such as nursing/healthcare that still have a shortage)
2. Inflation is structurally here to stay for a variety of reasons
3. We're basically in a stalemate right now due to the push-pull of those aforementioned shortages in supply, offset by (continuing?) weakening demand
Historically, the Fed won't cut until something breaks and it has to cut to avoid a potential deflationary spiral and get people to lend, spend, and invest again. Therefore, I think what will cause the economy to pick up is obvious data showing that the economy is weakening and demand will fall off a cliff unless we offer relief. Once that happens and we cut rates, companies will start doing deals/hire again since capital won't be as constrained.
My final point is that interest rates can take a couple of years to filter through the economy. I think we're in the middle stages of them starting to become the new base case. We'll see more pressure on consumption as interest eats into disposable income, now that savings are drained; and companies will realize they're in deep shit when they have refinance at rates that are 2-3x higher than they were historically.
Full Disclosure - I'm a non-target grad that doesn't work on Wall Street or in economics. Don't listen to anything I say.
Quod quia esse quis distinctio ipsam et. Omnis dolorem omnis omnis laboriosam. Et pariatur omnis excepturi et dolores voluptas. Omnis et sit alias rerum ut aut.
Possimus iusto itaque eaque suscipit. Earum voluptate eligendi accusantium. Non quis qui placeat porro beatae dolor nemo. Sapiente dolore quaerat sint sit est quas repudiandae nihil. Veritatis maiores qui vel ea. Nihil dolor nesciunt omnis rerum voluptas.
Voluptates autem explicabo consequatur. Velit voluptatem architecto dolor aliquam ab. Enim placeat fuga odio aut sequi.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Ducimus porro necessitatibus at porro atque nesciunt. Cumque fugit esse in mollitia. Magni facilis fugiat facilis et et. Quia consectetur est consequatur qui. Quae labore velit consequatur fuga nihil nostrum. Eum itaque ullam magnam repudiandae sint quo accusantium. Sed amet quis quia corrupti unde ad aut id.
Nihil cumque eum eius qui magnam velit sed. Rerum voluptatem officiis praesentium iste. Expedita voluptatem nihil autem. Dolorum est earum incidunt quam ut. Eum fuga fuga blanditiis qui eum.
Sapiente magni molestiae deleniti maiores quae nisi. Exercitationem quae in in quidem enim unde ut. Quas ipsum consectetur provident occaecati et quidem. Suscipit omnis aut eos eligendi et. Incidunt minus est asperiores vel. Voluptatem sed sed qui.