Trump Presidency on Market and Hiring?
What are the community’s thoughts on Trump’s presidency? Will we see a revitalization of the market and hiring improvement?
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Depends on if he's serious about his tariffs... if he is, then any tertiary positive business impact from having a Republican government (will likely see a renewal of TCJA and potentially even lower corporate taxes) will be overwhelmed by the negative impact from tariffs. If the GOP establishment manage to talk him out of his tariff plans and implement a more normal Republican business agenda, then likely slightly positive for markets/hiring.
Other wildcard is how serious he is about all of his various tax cuts, especially since he's never been a fiscal conservative. Likely will see deficit continue to soar which will have further knock-on effects.
I wouldn't expect to see any real tax impact until late 2025/early 2026 as that is when tax reform will need to happen (TCJA expires in 2025). Tariffs can be immediate (and unilateral from the president with no Congressional approval) - which is quite scary.
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