What does it mean when a recruiter confirms an onsite interview then goes silent and the role gets reposted?

Wanted to get some thoughts on a weird situation I'm in.

I've been interviewing for an analyst role at a large MM bank. Did two remote rounds back in January, both went well, and at the end of January the recruiter told me they wanted to bring me in for an onsite interview. The hiring manager was on vacation until mid-February, so the recruiter said they'd coordinate with him once he was back and get me the details.

Mid-February rolls around, I follow up, and the recruiter says the HM just got back and he'll connect with him and keep me posted. Since then I've followed up a few more times over the next few weeks and have gotten complete radio silence. Last response from the recruiter was mid-February.

Here's where it gets interesting: I noticed the exact same position was reposted on LinkedIn and their careers page a few days ago. When I tried to click apply it told me I'd already applied and wouldn't let me submit again, so it's definitely the same role. The posting had been closed/not accepting applications before that. New posting shows an application deadline of late April.

I haven't received any rejection or indication that I'm out. Just silence after being explicitly told I was moving to the onsite round.

Has anyone dealt with something like this before? What's the most likely explanation here? Is this a soft rejection through ghosting, or is it possible the process is just dragging and they're expanding the candidate pool? Any advice on how to handle this would be appreciated.