2022 Economic Predictions

1. economic predictions are useless unless you give your track record on all of your previous predictions (like byron wein who publicly scores himself)
2. the prediction should only be made if you have a direct position in/against what you're predicting
3. just because someone's an "expert" doesn't mean they're any good at predicting, in fact quite the opposite (see IMF, krugman, every economist on wall street, etc)
4. since #2 is hard to do, it's really hard to have predictions that bear any weight to your financial wellbeing. for example, if GDP growth is 6% instead of 5%, does that actually change how you invest your portfolio? probably not, so why do you give a fuck?

this is one of the most useless exercises our industry does. nobody can predict shit, yet they love spitballing for attention on CNBC (just say you wanna look at kelly evans, fuck your GDP growth forecast) 

finally, a word of advice to the youngins, give WAYYYYY less of a fuck about predictions, and anytime you see someone's prediction that looks interesting, look up their other predictions from years' past using google's date filters, you'll be surprised...and then you'll be jaded (like me)

edit: lest I sound like a hypocrite, my personal money is still 100% long and all in stocks (besides emergency funds). I'm not hedging, I have 0 bonds, real estate (besides my house), commodities, etc. bargains are appearing, many stocks are in a bear market even though the index isn't yet, so hold your nose and buy kiddies, plus I'll bet these aren't the last dollars you'll ever make so why tf are you being tactical in the first place?