Any of you Big Dicks seeing the Bumble of Omaha this weekend?

Yes, I've heard him talk multiple times, and he's easily one of the most intelligent people you will ever hear speak. I used to think like you when I was first introduced to him, that he never specifies on anything.

However, having worked in the industry at a long-only AM that invests ~90% like Buffet does, I now know you have to know what to look for when he talks. He does reveal quite a bit of info, that every investment case I am exposed to, I am awed & humbled by how his wisdom translates into achieving low-risk, high returns. Everything he espouses protects his downside and offers solid upside, leaving considerable room for margin of error. I've read an absurd amount of material on things he's said as well.

The most incredible thing is that many of the things he talks about, some of which is more common wisdom now, he pioneered. It's one thing to reproduce an art; it's quite another to create it. One more thing you need to understand about why he doesn't provide detailed case studies or specifics that allow people to break down his strategy, is that he is NOT in the business of making his own competition. There is enough competition out there that he doesn't need to make it harder for himself. Anything he says is reproduced in a thousand newspapers and a hundred books. Can you imagine how if he broke down with greater specificity his approach, what that would result in?

And yet, if you know what to look for, you can understand his strategy, and the thoughtfulness that goes into each and every thing he says. I can sympathize with you as to why you believe it's luck, because I myself thought that at one point when I felt frustrated that I couldn't break down his process. Today, I am sure there is much I don't know about how he thinks, but I feel I'm well on my way there, and over the ensuing 1-2 decades, I can get there, maybe not quite as good as Buffet, but pretty darn good. I and quite a few firms that modeled a large part of their thought process after Buffet can attest that he does have a highly effective strategy to investing, one that for many reasons is perhaps the highest conviction investing there is within the equity space.