Title says it all. Most of my immediate and extended family have seen either paycuts or have been laid off entirely due to this crisis. I'm not downplaying the effects of the virus but at the same time if we still practice social distancing as well as took preventative measures (i.e. masks, gloves, anything), shouldn't we be able to reopen some parts of the economy as opposed to a total shutdown?
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I do not think opening up businesses will be a function of the unemployment rate. Businesses are only going to open up when the curve starts flattening and the risks of becoming inflected become substantially lower than now.
I think it’s a false dichotomy to think “economy vs public health”.
If millions get infected and even 1% die.. that would have adverse effects on the economy, wouldn’t it? I would think so. I would say that the effects would be worse than the current shut down we’re in.
Of course there are both economic and health effects from the decision to shut down or not (and by how much). The question is where is the best trade off that minimizes the suffering.
Imagine if we stayed completely locked down for months. Initially, the hardest hit businesses like restaurants, bars, and movie theaters, would begin to go bankrupt. Not only do they go out of business, but everybody they used to pay loses some of their income (i.e. the restaurant is no longer buying food from the farmer, the owner of the bar is no longer paying rent, etc), so all of those places are now closer to bankruptcy. We'll essentially begin accelerating towards system-wide default and end in another great depression.
If that were to happen, there wouldn't be enough capital to research new medicines, resulting in more suffering and death that could have otherwise been avoided. Many many people would fall into extreme poverty; children would go hungry. You're right that it's not strictly economy vs. health; both will be impacted by whatever decisions we and our politicians make. Economic prosperity influences health outcomes (and vice versa). It's just not so simple to say X leads to good outcomes and not X leads to bad outcomes, there are effects in each direction so a fine balance must be struck.
I agree with you except for what I think you’re implying. You haven’t stated anything incorrect. We completely agree on everything you stated.
I think it’s a two way street though. If we have people sick and dying and people are afraid to go outside.. what’s the point of opening back up?
We need both the health of our population and the health of our economy to be good. Now we’re in a situation where neither can be good, in my opinion. I’m no expert and I’d love to be wrong honestly.
But then it begs the question.. why am I paying taxes to bail out corporations but not to help my fellow neighbor? Or even myself if I was laid off..
That all depends upon our progress in fighting the virus.
There's no off/on switch for the economy. Even without all of the state/local mandated restaurant closings, people are scared to shop and be active, have lost their jobs, or are saving in case they lose their jobs. Supply chains are disrupted , Amazon workers are frightened.
Everything hinges on controlling the virus. One factor in that, of several, is testing. Our testing capacity is nowhere close to where it needs to be. We are currently completing just over 100,000 tests a day. The level needs to be many times that capacity.
It's all about getting a handle on the virus.
Exactly. Right now, everything is riding on Dr Fauci and the people in the healthcare sector actually fighting the virus. There is no economy to save unless people feel safe going out and transacting with one another.
When the people who are starving are also the people with the guns.
What's more important, old people dying or your families jobs? I know what I would choose, it's a very simple answer.
I'd be tempted to say ''you know, you'll be old one day as well'', but I'll just indeed wait it's your turn. Ungrateful bastards produce ungrateful bastards.
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