Automation estimates are overblown.
Been browsing a lot of Reddit out of boredom recently and I've realized that almost everyone there thinks that in 20-30 years we'll have working robots serving as doctors, lawyers sometimes even mentioning financial careers like IB. Certain subreddits have people blatantly saying that in a couple decades, we'll all be freed from "wage slavery" and living off the government free to pursue whatever we want. And it's not even just one person, there are millions of people subbed to Futurology subreddits saying the exact same thing. How can people seriously say that complicated jobs like lawyers, doctors, bankers, consultants, etc be automated in 20 or so years, most people on Reddit have no idea what these jobs even do. But if you told them this, they'd just say some bullshit about "technology progresses in a non-linear manner".
Surely the people spouting the estimates about automation don't understand anything about how the world works. It'll take at the minimum a century before complex jobs like banking will be automated and even longer for jobs like software engineers so why are they all waiting for stuff like universal basic income to save them from their jobs? Are they just delusional or are they trying to convince themselves that they won't have to work the rest of their lives?
And it's not only on Reddit I keep seeing on this forum too. There are hundreds of posts on WSO about people asking about automation or how technology will affect a certain job. Nobody on this forum has to worry about automation unless they're really stupid in their career choices and become a bookkeeper or something.
To show the extent of how much automation has progressed, an accounting partner told me that someone born today could grow up, go to college, become an auditor at a Big 4 and not have to worry about robots in their lifetime.
Thoughts on this?
I definitely think it's overblown. The people saying we'll have widespread automation in 20-30 years are the same ones that thought we'd have flying cars by the year 2000.
I actually don't think it is overblown. The world is changing exponentially faster as technology builds on itself. Look into Ray Kurzweil's books
This goes back to Marx. We're still waiting for those labor reserve armies (aka "relative surplus population")...
So I agree that it is overblown and I don’t think that automation will takeover in 20-30 years. That said, if you asked someone 25 years ago if some of the technology progress we’ve actually experienced were possible, my guess is most rationale people would say no. 25 years ago personal computers were barely powerful enough to do anything beyond word processing. Now we can create holograms, automate an aircraft / spaceship takeoff and landing, and write algorithms that read the news and trade stocks in fractions of a second.
Other folks may be aware of it, but there is currently software out there that will instantly negotiate a non-disclosure agreement on your behalf. You give it basic preferences and it learns over time exactly how to mark up the NDA, just like a lawyer would. It is obviously less complex than many other legal documents, but it is a start.
The other thing to remember is that often times we adjust processes in order to permit automation. When Uber was first introduced, nobody was familiar with hailing a cab by dropping a pin on a map. This behavior is now commonplace. It’s not the best example but expect that certain services may be provided in a different way in order to promote automation.
Despite saying all of the above, I do think there is a difference between full automation and using technology as a tool to enhance human effectiveness. Certain things (repeatable tasks) lend themselves to automation more than others. For this reason I’m skeptical that many jobs will be automated in the near future, but I also recognize that there is a very real chance I’m wrong.
Whether it's 30 years or 300 years, we will eventually reach a point where almost all jobs can be automated (when an AI is powerful enough, it could even act as a trial lawyer or even a politician). But I actually don't think it's a good thing for us to be relieved of "wage slavery." I think most people, at their core, want to be productive; they get a sense of satisfaction out of being self-sufficient and independent and contributing to the success of their community or company or team.
I think when we reach the end of "wage slavery" you'll have a mass of humanity which is fundamentally unsatisfied with a life devoted to leisure. We'll be a miserable generation--dissatisfied, bored, hooked on drugs, and entirely unfulfilled.
Agreed 100% on the importance of productivity. Though, we won't be alive to see a fully automated world so let your mind be at ease.
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