Have we reached peak ARM status?

Do you guys have that friend that is 99% moron but then there's the 1% that is just genius? I do and he said something that got us debating: When do ARM loans make sense?

At some point you have to decide that interest rates are cresting and getting a 10 year ARM (or even a 5 year) makes legitimate sense over a fixed loan. It effectively becomes a short on interest rates, right? Is it possible that we are reaching a peak where an ARM makes sense above all others? 

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