It seems like we all do quite a bit of predicting things on WSO. Let's throw out the stuff we are qualified to predict like Markets, Financial Transactions, Etc. I want to know...how did we do a year ago on predicting things we probably have no business guessing about.
On 4/4/2013 @"blastoise" posted this: North Korea? And very simply asked:
What is the probability there will be a War in this upcoming week?
Then proceeded to ask about shorting currencies.
So...how did we do?
Out of 10 responses no one said "Yes, there will be a war this week." This means that NONE of you could possible hack it on network tv as any sort of analyst. All that hedging won't get you on TV.
Only @"CivilServant" even got close:
CivilServantI have to say, I'm starting to get worried that this guy may be just stupid enough to cause a major incident. At this point judgement is everything ( ie how do both sides save face while winding down tensions?), and I'm not sure his is sound.
Honorable mention goes to @"jmoney2405" for basically saying "North Korea has the ability but probably won't...but he might."
Troll of the post goes to @"Amphipathic" for trying to start a war satirically in Iran:
AmphipathicFor those of you keeping score:
NK has nuclear weapons, has long-range missiles, and has shown extreme willingness to nuke US.
Iran may be capable of making nuclear weapons in several years, doesn't have long-range missiles, and insists its nuclear program is peaceful.
Let's ignore NK and prepare for war with Iran!
Verdict: We got it mostly correct. No war with North Korea the week immediately following 4/4/2013. (Nor was there a war with North Korea at all in the last year.)
Fun Game or Not? Silver Bananas for Yes, Monkey Shit for No.
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