12 Comments
 

Me: Who are these people who think there's been fraud when there is clearly no evidence of such. I can't imagine someone being that dumb

WSO users: oMg voTER FrAUD. TrUmp is WiNning. He iZ GoD

 

I really don't know if this is a joke or what. Do you really not know how elections work, you waste of sperm. Do you really think Joe Biden is going to polling centers and putting up paper on windows. There is no end to ignorance in this country

 

I don't know if there was fraud or wasn't fraud. What I do know is that Trump was the single most abused President in modern American history. It's a damn shame really. They spent years trying to invalidate 2016 with the Russia collusion story, turned impeachment into a political tool, the media ruthlessly twisted his words to divide the nation, and then blamed the division on him. I think he was one of the more competent Presidents, along the likes of Eisenhower. Makes me sick how he was treated given how much he has done.

 
Most Helpful

I really don't know how people are considering fraud here.  As someone who has been watching intently, and literally reviews statistical datasets for BS for a living, I can't find any.

There are a few base case broad items to consider. Absentee/mail-in ballots have traditionally trended more blue. This has been due to a combination of people who can't take time off working a service job (a traditionally very blue constituency) and people working high effort office jobs like many of us (a constituency that's been trending more blue recently) using them frequently while retirees, the reddest constituency out there almost always vote in person. (hey, it seems more fun than mahjong)

Combine this with the mouthpiece for one side saying "Stay safe, vote by mail." while the other says "mail-ins are likely to be full of fraud." and we would expect an even bigger skew than normal.

  • PA seems most logical. You had a legislature that wouldn't allow ballot counting before Tuesday, and urban areas overwhelmed with absentees. I've been following a couple people monitoring the vote change as they get counted, and it's been remarkably on trend, with a R-squared of > 0.99
  • AZ feels like it was called early.  R's have long had a robust vote by mail program there, and the uncounted ballots don't seem to have a particular skew.  Biden's slightly ahead there right now, and I'm going to guess he'll win it, but I wouldn't put a beer on that.
  • Georgia feels like a toss-up.  Biden took the lead, but the composition of the remaining ballots is the question.  The outstanding mail-ins seem to be from blue-ish areas, but military ballots are counted if they're received by today, and they are normally pretty red.
  • I think NC and NV are toss-ups there really isn't enough info to call them

In either situation this is all academic though. PA puts Biden over the top.  Trump essentially has no chance of winning, especially since he has not put out anything as to WHY he believes that there is systemic fraud across multiple states with different election apparatuses. 

The only difference between Asset Management and Investment Research is assets. I generally see somebody I know on TV on Bloomberg/CNBC etc. once or twice a week. This sounds cool, until I remind myself that I see somebody I know on ESPN five days a week.
 

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