UFC 131 Dos Santos vs. Carwin
So after watching UFC for a while I finally plopped down my first decent sized bet. I got Carwin at +160, so 250 to win 400. I honestly see this fighting going a couple of ways and I weighted those by probability. I honestly think Dos Santos will win, but out of 10 times Carwin probably takes 6, so I placed the bet. Plus Carwin is my fave fighter, so I had to bet on him
Anyway.... I see it going one of 3 ways
1) Stand and bang like the Roy Nelson fight. I think Carwin has a good enough chin to stand for 3 rounds, and hopefully with his slimmed down body enough endurance. That said this is not the preferred method for a Carwin victory. I see Dos Santos darting in and out, with Carwin missing with his punches as JDS pulls away. I'd say 3 round decision Dos Santos if this happens.
2) Carwin clips JDS and then just pushes him again the cage a la Mir. This is the best case scenario since dirty boxing with Shane is just terrible for anyone. KO Carwin 1st round
3) Carwin actually shoots for the takedown, and will either get it, or get KTFO like Werdum when he goes in. With Greg Jackson in his corner I see Carwin actually using lay and pray a bit. I think he realizes JDS is too quick and immediately starts trying to take him down. Carwin is too strong for JDS and should be able to keep him down. Decision Carwin/ TKO JDS.
I honestly think 1 is going to happen and we're just going to see a slug fest which is bad for my bet, but great for the fans. I'm hoping that all of this talk about Carwin standing is a red herring though and he tries some takedowns, or at least tries to wrestle f$#()*. We'll see this is probably the biggest HW match of the year, even moreso than Werdum/ Reem, so I'm pumped. I'll be good and drunk so even if Carwin loses it will be ok.
Damn, you've thought about this well. I think those scenarios are in order of most likely to occur, with the 1st being heavily weighted, and the 3rd barely getting consideration.
Carwin doesn't really train with Jackson's that much -- his primary camp is Team Grudge in CO, with Marquardt and Schaub. While lay and pray is not outside the realm of possibility, the Grudge stable and coaches are not really known for that. Plus Carwin is too slow to shoot for takedowns from the outside (where he'll be, given JDS' piston of a jab). Instead, I see this going like your scenario #2: Carwin doing what he does best -- pressing guys against the cage, keeping the pressure on, and landing big shots from the clinch. Carwin KO R2
you know unless he runs outta gas...
The only thing stopping Carwin from knocking out JDS is his gas tank. JDS has never been hit as hard as Carwin hits I bet. What is all this talk of Carwin taking it to the ground? Carwin has always been more of a stand up fighter even with his wrestling.
For the record I like both guys so as long as one wins and takes the belt from Cain I will be happy.
Carwin GNP'ed his first couple of opponents, and is a D II wrestling champ. From the ESPN blip "Junior Dos Santos can't match my wrestling skills," countered Carwin. "I've been wrestling since I was six years old. Whether that means pushing him against the cage or on the ground who knows. JDS is a more precise and quicker striker, so on the feet he should have an advantage. On the ground or against the fence is v different.
I would pick Carwin to win this fight if he wasn't coming off a year long layoff. If he is smart and take JDS down he still has a good chance. However, I think he is going to want to stand and bang with JDS and that is going to cost him. On the feet JDS has a big advantage in technique and Carwin's chin is questionable after being dropped by striking luminaries like Gabriel Gonzaga. I see JDS avoiding the first round bull rush and taking a decision or third round TKO when Carwin is gassed and shoots for a sloppy takedown.
Yeah, I'm kinda with judowned on this one. Barring a knockout punch in the first round, Junior probably gasses him and pulls out the victory.
I don't think Carwin will try to take JDS down because he will probably gas. He might try to get him against the cage and avoid JDS's boxing, just like what he did to Mir, and dirty box him. I think he knows that he can knock out JDS and that JDS can knock him out as well. I think his best strategy is to clinch and push JDS towards the cage and dirty box and maybe go for takedowns.
Carwin at +160 all day. I see Junior being cautious through the 1st round, but getting KO'd in the 2nd or 3rd.
Yeah I don't see this being as quick to turn into an all out war as some people think. I really expect a timid first round, and then something big happening in the 2nd or 3rd.
Thought so. Junior beat the shit out of him. Props to Carwin for going the distance, though.
Chicken salad, anyone?
Good card overall. Stout almost killed a man, Cerrone was a machine, Herman did IU right, Maia surprised everyone with his stand up, Florian's cut went well, and although the Yankee lost, we know we'll have a great fight in JDS vs. Cain.
Carwin gassed even faster than I expected, he looked spent 3 minutes into the first. He showed great heart but he had nothing to combat the speed and defense of JDS. Other than some questionable judging (one judge gave Munoz the first round after landing only 7 strikes to Maia's 23) it was a solid card. Florian is going to get wrecked by Aldo but I think JDS vs Valesquez is going to be a great fight now the JDS has some decent takedown defense.
Rigged.
I picked JDS to win, but I was mostly 50/50 on it because I like both fighters. I was surprised he was able to get up so quickly after being taken down and even more surprised he took Carwin down twice, but that was in a third while he was tired and not expecting it.
Carwin is a joke at this point. Yes I'm pissed I lost the bet, but this was basically just Machida/ Couture / Shogun/ Bones rehashed. He's too old and slow and will never be a factor. That was embarrassing to watch, and shows the truly sad state of affairs of the HW division. There are only 2 fighters worth a damn JDS and Cain. After that it's a huge drop off. After those 2 fight, the winner will probably have to defend once before the Strikeforce tourney ends. Only after Bigfoot, Overeem, etc. come over will the HW picture be worth watching.
I have less than 0 interest in Struve/ Schaub/ Big Nog/ Nelson/ Carwin/ Herman, etc. Get Strikeforce done ASAP Dana.
Although Wanderlei and Faber lost, tonight was a great, exciting card! At least Tito gets to stay in the UFC.
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