What company will blow up
I read Schwartzman’s book “what it takes” and it got me wondering how does someone know when to join these companies. Blackstone now is regarded as a great firm but how did people know to join when it was small. What firms now are in position to grow like Blackstone did? Is it worth it to take a risk on a new firm, or just stick with the bigger safer names?
You sort of answered your own question- it’s a risk.
You can assess who runs the firm and their background and make your best judgement call. Some get it right (ex. Jon Gray) and many others get it wrong and have to find a new shop after the fund closes. There’s no right answer.
This holds true for all industries, not just finance
You may have stumbled upon a winner if everyone there is sharp, diligent and sincere. Groups are run into the ground by egos, shady practices and Dunning Kruger on steroids. Thankfully, these types of things make themselves obvious very early on
not always...Tinder, Uber, and many other unicorns started as shady and ego driven.
Its pretty simple - when you believe in the product, vision, and people.
Also, a big advantage to joining early is the possibility of becoming an equity partner, even if only a tiny slice.
If anyone knew the answer to this question, they would already be a billionaire.
Just do your DD, make a decision, and deal with what happens. That's what life is.
I think you look at the co-founders and do they really mesh, but are they also different yet complimentary. Are there cowboys/girls and builders?
Could you in your mind write a Forbes magazine article about the rise of this firm several years into the future?
What are the macro factors? Especially if the trends favor new entrants.
How has the firm handled rapid growth so far?
Is the core business sustainable? Sometimes staying in the game is really what’s needed, and then build-up year after year.
Can the firm keep the core and pivot to adjacencies? That’s a test for growth.
Does the firm have the ability to keep pace? Who are the next tier of team below the founders and are they hungry and capable?
everyone knew tesla was going to blow up but people dont have the balls to put their money where their mouth is
I actually agree with this in a way that hits different. Knew a couple family friends who were early employees there and were whipping the original roadster on weekends with tons of beta testing equipment attached to the cars who doubled down on the company with such conviction that my dad and I (this is when I was in middle school) would almost be automatically convinced that this gorgeous and rather innovative automobile would be the future. Once the beta testing came to a halt and they went commercial with sold out promos in the bay and socal, tesla became a reality as a real competitor in the luxury sport market for those who wanted to make an environmental statement while cruising around in a car that did 0-60 in 3.5 or something like that (again, in '07-8 when those numbers belonged to the Ferrari's and Lambo's of the world). Was a blur after high school and college when tesla fully went commercial and fully meme to become a company which was so unique in the sense that its earnings were dictated by obviously it's core delivery / fundamental metrics but also a seemingly eccentric CEO who, according to my family friends who were early employees, leaned into the contrarian / rebel type of persona much later in his career which is what people know Elon by and what often times dictates tesla's pricing and share performance. Obviously a lot more to say on this but on first thoughts, I'm actually brought back to some interesting childhood memories
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