when will NYC reopen?

I heard Cornell’s Weill medical researchers saying the earliest would be august. Don’t quote on me tho

bump

Based on his guidelines he gave last week, I expect we’ll see non-essential businesses starting to open between June 1st and June 15th - probably closer to the 15th. That said it will be very slow, curbside pick up only at first at non essential businesses, then limited capacity in store, etc for weeks to months. Anything that would bring a gathering of people in close proximity (I.e concerts, sports, shows, clubs that don’t serve food, tourist attractions) will likely be shut down for months. Office buildings are months away still for anyone deemed non essential. And for white collar workers that can work from home, again I don’t see any of us going back to work for awhile. I don’t expect to see the inside of my office again until August at the earliest. Certain banks / firms will start staggered openings for groups where being in person is more important (I.e trading floors come back long before bankers), but that’s still mid June to July away and I expect no firm will “require” people to return, they’ll just allow it if they want to come in.

All in all, I won’t be surprised if your average NYC banker / lawyer / white collar worker spends more days in 2020 working from home than they do working from an office.

Whatever it is I imagine it will be well after many other regions of the US have lifted restrictions and also at a slower rate. NY is just a different beast than other parts of America as far as population density, international travel, public transportation etc. Also considering how hardly hit it has been by the virus itself.

I went outside and walked Central Park yesterday and was very surprised how many people there were (wearing masks and gloves and whatever of course). I even saw people bringing in takeouts and doing picnics. Only thing that doesn't look like pre-COVID is closed shops. But this did not happen just yesterday. I have been seeing a gradual increase in people in the street, taking walk and stuff. So even though Cuomo huffs and puffs about how serious stay-at-home is, I am really not sure how it is practiced in NYC.

My guess is that office starts reopening in the beginning of June but probably divide the workforce in half or third or quarter whatever to ensure some default distancing.

I've been getting more and more pessimistic as time goes on. Watching Cuomo each morning does not give the sense of urgency to re-open by June. I think he's waiting to see how other states do over the next 4-6 weeks. Maybe we get some bars and restaurants at 50% capacity in July and maybe some of us start to get back to the office in September. Anyone who is in the city has seen how many people are out in the parks every weekend now. A lot of people aren't wearing masks and aren't social distancing. I am really interested to see if our numbers increase over the next few weeks as a result. If deaths continue to drop and net hospitalizations are still negative, I think it will be hard to justify a full lock down for the remainder of the summer.

It’s easy for many here with still FT jobs with monthly income to say “reopen by August”.

We will have way bigger issues than the virus if that is the case. Things will begin opening up at lower capacity by early to mid June.

Depends on your definition of open up... I think the approach needs to be gradual. To get to the point where it was prior to the pandemic, we are probably looking at some time next year, hopefully early in the year.

My friend who works at a PE fund in Ny - that was in the process of fund raising - tells me that any further delays won’t be conducive to their efforts..they’re already struggling to meet LPs. As for me, my firm is also finding it hard to close deals. Zoom meetings just aren’t as effective as in-person. I fear that this won’t be sustainable until July / August...am I the only one here who thinks this?

I don’t think banks will be really effected. our syndicate people still go to the office - at least some, including MDs. but otherwise we are perfectly working from home. There is record high supply in the market. and in the end, no-one wants to risk their health because it is not worth it. I am guessing by June we might go back to work but still not 100%

I agree we’re tracking for July / August back to work for Bankers but that doesn’t incorporate the latest thinking into a potential 2nd wave this Fall. If we see Southern Hemisphere geographies ramping up the curve, then I bet we don’t go back to work until 2021. There’s just no point... FT bankers are operating at normal capacity / same work quality in my experience WFH.

Take a look at central park, bryant park, prospect park and everywhere else. Photos of people not wearing masks and not practicing 6 feet social distancing over the weekend just sky rocketed.

it shouldn’t be ur right. but it’s political in the US and ideologies r driving reopenings. republican states opening up earlier than later. liberal states opening later than earlier. yet, it u open up later u might as well follow social distancing protocols or else opening later is useless

FYI for any monkeys still in NY - you can get a serology (anti-body) test at any open CityMD for free with insurance, copay is waved by the CARES act. Quick blood draw, 5-7 days later youll find out if you're in the 20% that had it. I went and did it today, wasn't even a line to get it. It's troubling that this isn't being broadcast in the media, but that's another topic i suppose