when will NYC reopen?
anyone with thoughts on how nyc will reopen given that pop nearly doubles with commuters? how is transit going to even function? will restaurants and bars recover? I expect June 15 but anyone with any additional thoughts or insight?
I heard Cornell’s Weill medical researchers saying the earliest would be august. Don’t quote on me tho
not realistic. Cuomo would never get re-elected. so many small businesses would fail
bump
No one knows the answer to this and it also depends on what you mean by reopening. Even when non-essential businesses can reopen, they’ll likely be forced to operate at limited capacity. You’ll likely see banks doing shifts like pre shut down. And vulnerable groups remaining remote.
If you want to get a good sense of it listen to what Cuomo says and look at how high his approval rating is. Anyone that claims Cuomo won’t get re-elected if he keeps NY shut down isn’t factoring in that a lot of people actually support the shut down and his handling of the situation, so far.
The political angle though hinges on how long the state and city finances hold together, which will eventually become reliant on federal aid given how much tax revenue is falling. I don’t think it will be wise to begin re-opening until June at the earliest. Unlike the red state people protesting in state capitals, NY-ers probably will not patronize businesses enough for a reopening to make sense financially. The white collar office workers that drive the Manhattan economy have zero reason to risk their health on crowded trains going to the city, when we can easily do our jobs from home.
All of the mouthbreathers who are actively opposing quarantine and saying F Cuomo and his OmFg CorPoraTe GrEeD McKinsey team (who really need to up their slide game; shit looks like the hot garbage my SA last summer produced) are the same people who won’t even be aware of when voting registration takes place. Cuomo will be fine
Based on his guidelines he gave last week, I expect we’ll see non-essential businesses starting to open between June 1st and June 15th - probably closer to the 15th. That said it will be very slow, curbside pick up only at first at non essential businesses, then limited capacity in store, etc for weeks to months. Anything that would bring a gathering of people in close proximity (I.e concerts, sports, shows, clubs that don’t serve food, tourist attractions) will likely be shut down for months. Office buildings are months away still for anyone deemed non essential. And for white collar workers that can work from home, again I don’t see any of us going back to work for awhile. I don’t expect to see the inside of my office again until August at the earliest. Certain banks / firms will start staggered openings for groups where being in person is more important (I.e trading floors come back long before bankers), but that’s still mid June to July away and I expect no firm will “require” people to return, they’ll just allow it if they want to come in.
All in all, I won’t be surprised if your average NYC banker / lawyer / white collar worker spends more days in 2020 working from home than they do working from an office.
Whatever it is I imagine it will be well after many other regions of the US have lifted restrictions and also at a slower rate. NY is just a different beast than other parts of America as far as population density, international travel, public transportation etc. Also considering how hardly hit it has been by the virus itself.
I went outside and walked Central Park yesterday and was very surprised how many people there were (wearing masks and gloves and whatever of course). I even saw people bringing in takeouts and doing picnics. Only thing that doesn't look like pre-COVID is closed shops. But this did not happen just yesterday. I have been seeing a gradual increase in people in the street, taking walk and stuff. So even though Cuomo huffs and puffs about how serious stay-at-home is, I am really not sure how it is practiced in NYC.
My guess is that office starts reopening in the beginning of June but probably divide the workforce in half or third or quarter whatever to ensure some default distancing.
If you look at the mobility data, it’s at historic lows in NYC right now. That’s partly because most people that can leave the city have. But it’s also true that people are going out far less.
It is absolutely true that people are getting out with the nice weather, but it seems pretty responsible so far and with relative distancing in mind, which is fine. Remember you don’t have to be completely shut in - you just need to be smart about the limited times you do go outside. And let’s be clear, having a lot of people going and sitting in the park with a picnic is a far cry from happens on a normal 75 degree Sunday in May in the west village.
I've been getting more and more pessimistic as time goes on. Watching Cuomo each morning does not give the sense of urgency to re-open by June. I think he's waiting to see how other states do over the next 4-6 weeks. Maybe we get some bars and restaurants at 50% capacity in July and maybe some of us start to get back to the office in September. Anyone who is in the city has seen how many people are out in the parks every weekend now. A lot of people aren't wearing masks and aren't social distancing. I am really interested to see if our numbers increase over the next few weeks as a result. If deaths continue to drop and net hospitalizations are still negative, I think it will be hard to justify a full lock down for the remainder of the summer.
It’s easy for many here with still FT jobs with monthly income to say “reopen by August”.
We will have way bigger issues than the virus if that is the case. Things will begin opening up at lower capacity by early to mid June.
I'm genuinely confused why this post received any MS.
Can anyone shed some light on why any of the three statements made in this post are inaccurate or low quality?
no clue. think that is more realistic than other responses
It wasn’t me that threw MS, but one counter argument would be the CARES unemployment stimulus booster ($600 a week) combined with NY state unemployment benefits brings the income replacement rate close to 100% on average across the state. The program last for four months so they would be August assuming you started collecting benefits in April.
Depends on your definition of open up... I think the approach needs to be gradual. To get to the point where it was prior to the pandemic, we are probably looking at some time next year, hopefully early in the year.
My friend who works at a PE fund in Ny - that was in the process of fund raising - tells me that any further delays won’t be conducive to their efforts..they’re already struggling to meet LPs. As for me, my firm is also finding it hard to close deals. Zoom meetings just aren’t as effective as in-person. I fear that this won’t be sustainable until July / August...am I the only one here who thinks this?
I don’t think banks will be really effected. our syndicate people still go to the office - at least some, including MDs. but otherwise we are perfectly working from home. There is record high supply in the market. and in the end, no-one wants to risk their health because it is not worth it. I am guessing by June we might go back to work but still not 100%
I agree we’re tracking for July / August back to work for Bankers but that doesn’t incorporate the latest thinking into a potential 2nd wave this Fall. If we see Southern Hemisphere geographies ramping up the curve, then I bet we don’t go back to work until 2021. There’s just no point... FT bankers are operating at normal capacity / same work quality in my experience WFH.
Take a look at central park, bryant park, prospect park and everywhere else. Photos of people not wearing masks and not practicing 6 feet social distancing over the weekend just sky rocketed.
absurd talk about a city that’s 90% liberal and can’t even wait out quarantine to save lives and so we can get back to work quicker
I am not sure why this is a political topic. Protocol during a pandemic should not be based on a political ideology.
it shouldn’t be ur right. but it’s political in the US and ideologies r driving reopenings. republican states opening up earlier than later. liberal states opening later than earlier. yet, it u open up later u might as well follow social distancing protocols or else opening later is useless
FYI for any monkeys still in NY - you can get a serology (anti-body) test at any open CityMD for free with insurance, copay is waved by the CARES act. Quick blood draw, 5-7 days later youll find out if you're in the 20% that had it. I went and did it today, wasn't even a line to get it. It's troubling that this isn't being broadcast in the media, but that's another topic i suppose
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