I'm sure most of you caught Bill Ackman's interview on CNBC today. Interested in hearing your thoughts on what he discussed.
https://www.cnbc. com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html
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On one hand, could happen.
Ackman does good research, sometimes his trades don't always work on.
On the other hand, the same thing with his Herbalife trade (government intervention) could affect his theory.
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I added in a space after the dot in .com as I wasn't sure if you're allowed to post direct links. Delete out the space and link should work fine.
It was one of the most insane things I have ever seen.
he’s not wrong but adding kerosene to the fire
I largely agree that he was not wrong, but certainly did spook the markets.
They should stop giving him a platform. Dude wanted to go full on communist.
Interested to hear your rationale. I largely agreed with his message in that, on the surface, every good business should be able to last 30 days without revenue. However, no business can last 12-18 months with 50-80% less revenue. The treasury surely does not have enough money to bail out all industries. Also, given the moral hazard it creates and all the stock buybacks (Starbucks as an example), I don't know if I agree with the bailouts.
One of if not the most alarming interviews thus far. I agree with him that draconian and immediate measures need to take place, but maybe don’t agree that if they aren’t that this will be the end of capitalism (seems drastic). A lot of finance folk forget that most people in society don’t sit on reserves and actually are pay check to pay check. Society can’t run unless those people are paid accordingly.
Danny Meyers’ Union Square Group laid off 80 percent (2k) employees. Ackman is right that it trickles up from the bottom of the food chain and can get really bad. Hoping immediate loans and unemployment are given out to mitigate extra selling in the market for survival purposes.
He was stupid and making no sense.
First of all if he freaked out in January with a horrible dream why did he wait 2 months to tell everyone.
Also he’s just late to the party on a lot of assertions. “It’s EXPONENTIAL!!!”. Thanks Bill.
I think he read the scary Imperial College paper the day before and lost his shit and scheduled with CNBC. Didn’t take time to consider other possibilities, like Taleb did with his takedown of the paper the next day.
All of these growth models assume no intervention. They pretend to be so sophisticated but they take R-nought and extend it indefinitely as though nobody is doing any social distancing, or getting hospital beds ready, as though weather affects nothing, etc etc. Just zero common sense overlay.
We need to be careful but this fear mongering is dumb and even Ackman was buying stock while shitting his pants or at least pretending to. People know deep down the fear is overblown.
I mean Trump practically announced a cure today. People need to get a grip.
Ackman is actually right about the fact that a total shutdown would end it all much quicker. Economically, it would make total sense to do a super strict shutdown for a few weeks and everyone would know that they still have a job when it’s over.
Unfortunately Ackman butchered that message with the worst delivery of all time.
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