predicting stock price development using stock options data
Hi. I am new to this forum, s I am not completely sure if this thread is correctly placed. I am currently studying the market for stock options as indicative of future stock returns. I have data and what I need help with is confirming whether the rationale behind some of the variables I "designed".
The first one is the ratio of put-implied volatility and call-implied volatity. The volatility can, as I have learned, be thought of as the most subjective input in the pricing model (Black Scholes). When there is a difference in the implied volatility of a call and the put, can the IV-ratio difference from 1 indicate whether the market is somewhat more positive or negative towards the underlying stock of the option?
Second question relates to the price spread of call and put options. If one sees the size of the spread as an indication of how willing market participants are towards entering and offering certain option contracts, can I use the ratio/difference for call and put options as an indication of expected future development of the underlying stock?
I am fully aware that none of these are certain or necessary relations.
Mons
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