Evaluating Strategic Routes to MM PE

Very little chance you go from Biz Dev at a top tech company to MM PE. You could maybe go from years of successful Biz Dev to Biz Dev/IR at a MM PE firm and try to fight your way to the investing side, but you're probably looking at a near 0% chance there too.

If I were you, I'd take Cascadia if you have it, kill it for a year, lateral to the best BB or MM bank you can, do another year or two, and then just recruit normally for PE. Non-target background will hurt at the top MM funds, but if you're open to not being in a Tier 1 city, you'll be able to find a fund that'll take you. If you're able to get into a BB you might even have a shot at some of the top funds.

Comp for most entry level PE roles at the associate level will be ~$200k range depending on the fund size.

Carry is such a long term incentive I wouldn't even really think about that. In theory it seems good when you do the math a at a high level, but there's lots of complications which makes it tricky and on a very long time frame.