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This was certainly one of the more lucrative plays in PE. However, I'd argue the absurd returns were really a function of luck rather than investing acumen.....

Apollo's strength was in the distressed debt markets where the senior guys (Harris, Black, Rowen) all had significant experience having worked for Mike Milken at Drexel. They viewed Lyondellbassell as a strong discount debt buy given the significant value of the hard assets on the company’s balance sheet (bunch of olefins plants). If the company had just emerged from bankruptcy and teetered along like most post-bankruptcy companies do, the returns would not have been nearly as dramatic.

However, the pioneering of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling technology that resulted in the shale gas boom in the late 2000's/early 2010's dramatically reduced Lyondellbassell's feedstock costs (given the strategic location of their plants) thus supercharging their profitability. Did Apollo predict a revolution in drilling and extraction technology? No, they did not. But they knew something about chemicals and knew something about distressed debt and got really fucking lucky.

 

Back in school I'd buy a pack of gum and sell each individual piece at a premium. Returns used to be 7x, pure equity play, no leverage required.

Absolute truths don't exist... celebrated opinions do.
 

Don't forget monitoring fees, transaction fees, and "success" fees (which FYI don't require success). Toys-R-Us comes to mind: $300m+ in fees for running a company straight into the ground.

 

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