Favorite Private Equity Plays?
What are some of your favorites? Always thought this one was fairly clever.
What are some of your favorites? Always thought this one was fairly clever.
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Look up Apollo's bet on Lyondellbassell in 2008... they invested $2 billion into the debt of the company as it went into bankruptcy, converted to equity post-emergence and eventually wound up with $10 billion of profits for a 6x return. Ballsy as hell and really cemented them as the smartest PE investors in the room.
This was certainly one of the more lucrative plays in PE. However, I'd argue the absurd returns were really a function of luck rather than investing acumen.....
Apollo's strength was in the distressed debt markets where the senior guys (Harris, Black, Rowen) all had significant experience having worked for Mike Milken at Drexel. They viewed Lyondellbassell as a strong discount debt buy given the significant value of the hard assets on the company’s balance sheet (bunch of olefins plants). If the company had just emerged from bankruptcy and teetered along like most post-bankruptcy companies do, the returns would not have been nearly as dramatic.
However, the pioneering of hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling technology that resulted in the shale gas boom in the late 2000's/early 2010's dramatically reduced Lyondellbassell's feedstock costs (given the strategic location of their plants) thus supercharging their profitability. Did Apollo predict a revolution in drilling and extraction technology? No, they did not. But they knew something about chemicals and knew something about distressed debt and got really fucking lucky.
Back in school I'd buy a pack of gum and sell each individual piece at a premium. Returns used to be 7x, pure equity play, no leverage required.
Charging LPs 2% management fees and 20% carry without a hurdle while underperforming the public market equivalent.