It’s slowed down a lot, but the good firms are still probably going to hit their targets. They are just taking a lot longer than vintages that were raised in 2019-2021. For example, Genstar just closed on $11B, Carlyle has raised $15-16B / $22B, WP has raised $15B / $16B, CDR has raised $16B / $20B, KKR closed on $19B, Advent closed on $25B, Hellman closed on $24B and chasing $30B, Blackstone chasing $25B+, Apollo chasing $25B, etc.

Obviously all of the firms above are household names so they have done well. It’s probably the middle of the road middle market firms that will have harder times. I’m not talking about firms like Francisco, GTCR, New Mountain, AEA, Berkshire, etc., but I can see some of the lower quality shops that have middle of the fairway returns not being able to raise successively larger funds. I think everyone generally knows who these folks are.

 

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