Lateraling at senior associate / VP level

Senior associate at UMM PE shop ($5B+ fund). Been here for 5 years and 3 years of IB before that. I like my team and experience has been solid, but turning 30 soon and having some doubts of my path here.

Ton of levels above me and each promotion will only get harder. I’d be lucky if I make Partner in early 40s, which is probably a 5% chance anyways.

Thinking now is the time to get out before the golden handcuffs get real. Ideally want to make the jump to a VP / Principal seat on “partner-track” — which I know means a move downmarket (ok and actually prefer this).

I’m up for VP next year, so thinking waiting for the title might make me more marketable externally. We have title deflation but feel like market should care more about YOE.

Lastly, am I dumb for wanting to leave my seat? Considered a strong performer and I don’t hate my life. I just don’t think becoming a Partner here is a probability for me (don’t think it is for 99% of the mid levels here). My other thought is should I just try to ride the wave as long as I can and can figure out alternatives if/once I get pushed out…the comp is nice, but time and age is biggest opportunity cost I’m battling.

Would love to hear thoughts from folks who have gone through this before.