How To Get Promoted to Senior?

Some things I’ve observed recently although it’s an incomplete picture:
- in IB, most MD hires are from other banks. We have a handful that get promoted internally each year but the large majority are from other banks. If you’re at like a GS/MS/etc I’d assume this is the case too, because it’s easier to win business when you just buy a successful MD and their book from another bank.
- in PE, most of the senior headcount is capped out. Associates often know early if there’s even a glimmer of chance of making senior aso, and by then, it’s a coin toss if they make VP. I would assume senior seats open up as new funds get created, but these are largely just different strategies. Is there still a path to partner at MFs, UMMs, etc?

Is it becoming increasingly harder to make MD/Partner in finance? Earning a senior role is a difficult thing in itself, but I feel like I’m also seeing a shrinking amount of seats at the same time. Open to any thoughts.