Is there a way back?

I’m currently an Analyst 1 at a US IB boutique in London. Long term, I want to move into opportunistic/distressed credit investing. I went to school in the US, am not from the UK, and over time have realized I probably see myself back in the US longer term.

So the core question: what’s the most realistic way to get back to the US and into opportunistic credit? I’ve been thinking about the following main paths:

(1) Internal transfer to US office, then recruit in the US

I likely could move internally to the US office, but probably not for at least ~2 years as I’d need to build credibility first. My concern is that by the time I make the move, I may have missed the typical “entry point” recruiting window for opportunistic credit roles, which are already limited in number. Although, being physically in the US might make the process more streamlined, I would still be on a visa with the current firm which I would have to forego before applying with the credit fund and as someone who has gone through recruiting in the US as an international student, it is not a fun process when you are left with no job because your visa never came through.

(2) Move to a credit fund in London, then try to transfer to US

This feels moderately difficult but doable if I play my cards right. The idea would be to join a credit fund in London, spend 1–2 years there, and then see if I can transfer internally to a US office. Since I’d already be in credit it might be easier to mov to the US arm then to recruit from the bank in the US and it gives me more time to decide whether I truly want to leave the UK and that my desire to move to the US is just a recency bias from college/friends/network). I also realize that there is no guarantee a US transfer materializes and opportunistic credit sats in London are not abundant either.

(3) Apply directly to US distressed/opportunistic credit roles from London

This feels like the hardest path. I struggle to see why a US fund would pick me over hundreds (if not thousands) of US-based candidates. That said, if I somehow pull this off, it’s the cleanest outcome — no internal politics, no waiting around, just a direct move into the seat I actually want.

(4) Stay in banking forever because opportunistic credit investing is a fad / hoax

Not saying I know everything, I might not be looking at this correctly, is the industry just not a LT spot where you can continue learning? Should I reconsider moving roles in the first place and stay in IB/RX (not necessarily at same bank) whether is the US or UK for a good amount of time before moving any forward?

Bottom line

(2) seems most reasonable from my point of view so far but am happy to be corrected. I’ve thought about this from a lifestyle and long-term perspective as well — most of my college friends, broader network, and professional relationships are in the US. There are also differences in tax environment, political climate, and perceived growth opportunities between the UK and US that factor into this where I genuinely think that the UK in the long run might just not be the place to be (do not agree that it is now either).

Even so, I’m aware I might be missing something structurally (visa issues, recruiting timing, how opportunistic credit hiring actually works across geographies, etc.).

Would really appreciate input from anyone who’s made a similar UK -> US move, especially into credit. Where are the blind spots in my thinking? What am I underestimating or overestimating here?