Norwegian Air Shuttle - Convert day is done and found loop forecasts +++++

As an introduction i would like to start with:

Norwegian Air Shuttle has emerged through with it's convertion. As the market airline leader has burst with a forecast price of more than 1000+ % - Presented by different Economic Analyst Co. It has already gone 30+ on the first day associated with the delivery of the vaccine. Now if you did live out the "Apple Miss-Out", don't do it again, because I seldom do these analysis and even the less post them somewhere.

In this analysis, I will explain why Norwegian will be saved by the Chinese, and why there is a buying situation in the share. I certainly wouldn't put the post without inside.

It's time to speak plainly. Right now there is no place for bullshit when a company's survival is at stake.

The focus of this analysis is not what the company is "worth" or "can be worth", even if this is exactly what you look at in a stock analysis normally.

This is what will determine Norwegian's future

What will determine Norwegian's future is whether its principal owners will be willing to risk more money.
Something that in turn will partly be related to whether those who are to risk more money get a little "discount". - and the only one who can make the deal sweet is of course the Norwegian state. Maybe they can support with some coffee bread. After all, the Chinese want to have some influence in Norway. Does it not border the Atlantic and the United States?

Never underestimate the geopolitical aspects of a deal at this level.

Thus, we have set up the analysis for the two single most important questions (initially):

1: Who are the main owners and will they invest more money?

2: Does the state provide support with coffee bread?

Let's look at the main owners:

Principal owner 1: AerCap (15.9%) has acquired the shares in Norwegian. AerCap owns the aircraft operated by Norwegian.
Principal owner 2: BOC - Bank of China (12.7%).

Let's look at AerCap what their financial position looks like.

In AerCap's latest Q3 2020, it appears that the company has a "strong balance sheet" and pulls me backwards "RECORD LIQUIDITY".
Cash on account.

AerCap has money in large piles - at record levels, and they are looking for an opportunity in the market to make a cut.

Source AerCap holding Q3 2020 - record liquidity for which you are looking for an investment opportunity!
 

Then we have BOC - Bank of China.

Can they afford to invest more in Norwegian?

Haha yeah its funny i know.

Yes. They have money.

That they have money is not the important thing - but what is the most important point here is - the Chinese have in recent years gone on a buy-raid in the West and vacuumed up as many companies and shares as they can.

Ask Håkan Samuelsson, CEO (so far) of Volvo Cars, now Geely - and you'll see!

As long as I have been dealing in shares, I have not seen China sell any shares - and you can forget that the Bank of China would let one of its "investments" wither away!

The Norwegian state then?

Can they afford to support their fleet? Do they even want to support it?

Can they afford it?

Haha yeah that's quite funny aswell.

Of course, the Norwegian state said "you are a happy boy, but it will be no", to support Norwegian financially.

Of course, the Norwegian state says no at this stage, as the company has an excess staff.

It was NO.

Later in the evening, 1,600 of staff from Norwegian Air Shuttle got smoked.

Does this mean that the Norwegian state intends to let the company go in the putt?

Of course it doesn't.

They just do not want to "bail out" all the redundant employees and bind costs (why save the company now? Let them fire 1600 poor employees first).

To shoot in money is required - dieting and above all NEW money!

This is exactly what we have and will see - dieting is already done and new money is on the way!

Norwegian has lost weight and the two major owners AerCap and Bank of China are just as eager to throw more money into Norwegian, as a gambling addict at the casino!

When AerCap and Bank of China talk about supporting new capital - about the Norwegian state and offering "a little bun" (a little capital), then everyone will finally gather in a single big hug party up in the office in Oslo.

We can now summarize the analysis:

The two main owners AerCap and Bank of China both have money and are both ready to invest!
The Norwegian state was tricked a bit first to reduce the costs… to then be able to support with a little more dough for the back cabin (something more than oil and fish do you still want?) -
Norwegian makes a new issue and the airline is saved

I think everyone by now has understood that the analysis is positive.

The only question is how in the name of peace do you trade a share with these premises?

All or nothing.

The company is saved and the price rises up to SEK 2-10 (this is before the reverse split of 1: 100. The owner of 100 Norwegian Air Shuttle receives 1 new share).

This split is also an important clue. If the main owners intend to dump the company and let it go in bankruptcy, why in the whole hell do you then try with a reverse split?

Well answer because, you have to make a new issue and dilute the dung again!

So: It will be an all or nothing.

This means that those who want to invest in this purchase case - which includes a probable issue and rescue of the company. buys shares in Norwegian on the premise that either there will be bankruptcy - then the whole bite will fall, or Norwegian will manage and stand 2-10 in 12-24 months.

Possible loss: -1
Possible win: 2-10 x the money

This means that we bet 1 to win 2-10.

The strategic swing trader buys shares in 2 parts. Now and after the issue. As the risk is sky high, it is smart to risk small amounts.

In summary: The most likely scenario is that the two main owners AerCap and Bank of China, and the Norwegian state save Norwegian and the company survive, and stand at SEK 2-10 within 12-24 months.

It's already started, Happy Xmas everyone.

Comments (1)

Dec 29, 2020 - 11:58am
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