Confirming on cycle getting pushed. Apparently last night / today these first year analysts blabbered nonsense and just weren't prepared - quality was subpar at best and PE shops were not happy with the current wave of candidates. Sources (2 MF, 2 UMM) say expecting process to kick back late-August / September similar to 2022 on cycle.
Also very similar to what happened last year - one MF / UMM shop engages HHs to send out coffee chats, HHs figure "it's happening" and send out info sessions, analysts get freaked out, other buyside shops start their processes to also get first looks, and eventually everything turns into a shit show.
Could also expect November / December on cycle opportunities given current economy and PE shops waiting until Q3 to determine how large of a class they can take on. With limited financing options and investment opportunities, PE shops want good and vetted associates not associates they hired based on school, group, and grades. Historically, they might've found jewels in the dirt and ran with it, but returns portcos aren't looking too good YTD and would expect that they want quality talent to get their funds back into shape.
This looks like a Russian psyop…ima keep prepping
Let me add some high level perspective that may help. With the exception of funds with top returns that are often over subscribed, fundraising has been abysmal for the past year. The biggest reason for this is large pensions / endowments that have strict percentage targets experienced the denominator effect where their equity and fixed income asset classes in 2022 were down way more than private equity (many funds were still up on the year), so they had to pull back from new allocations. Additionally, the bid / ask for many companies has been very wide the past year so deal activity has slowed. My view is many funds will under hire until they have more certainty on the economic cycle. If I had to guess, I would say recruiting this year will likely be a rolling process that could extend well into next year. My final point is many GPs are very focused on macro data right now. Macro can be hard to predict, but developing a view and the risks to that view would differentiate you in recruiting (at least with me). Listen to the Fed press conference this week and other Fed speakers (Jackson Hole in August is usually important). Track leading indicators and note data points that are outliers (i.e. why is employment still relatively strong). Hope this helps.