Should you ever recommend against an investment, in a modeling test?
Let's say the IRR is strong, but the CIM reveals major red flags. Should you still make a bidding range recommendation? I heard you should take a stance, so not sure if you should just suggest a lower multiple, or say "Do not recommend to IC"
"IRR is attractive but there are major red flags I would want to thoroughly diligence before making a fully qualified recommendation. So I tentatively recommend, pending full diligence, but should these items be true, they are investment dealbreakers because they could kill returns for (insert reason here)"
You can definitely recommend a pass but be ready to defend it. Firms routinely give cases on deals that could go either way for this exact reason. Goes without saying but make sure it is not, or does not, appear to be a current or past portco. If the deal killers have to do with fundamental issues with the business model or industry that the PE firm would appear incapable of overcoming or of having an angle given past investment experience then stick with your instincts. Better to take a strong stance and have an opinion than not. Not to sound cliché but you are paid to have an opinion. Anyone can back into a 3x MOIC and 25% IRR in a model.
Should you really want to give a yes, is there a way you can think creatively about structure to protect your downside (increased roll, subordinated roll, liquidation preferences, assets or NWC acquired, convertible note, earnout, seller note). What key and gating questions do you have? What areas and types of diligence would you want to dig in on further to get comfortable with the risks presented in the CIM? You can always caveat your answer with a “if I knew more about XYZ”.
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