Thoma Bravo went from $3bn AUM in 2012 to $181bn today. Who’s next?
Who do you guys think is going to make the next big run. Yes I know about the headwinds for pe and enterprise software blah blah skip that and drop names with great performance.
I realize what you’re getting at but it’s kind of impossible to completely ignore the sector at which they were investing and the timing at which they were raising, and think that it’s remotely possible for a firm even with legitimately better returns to raise at such a rapid pace.
The firm you’re looking for hasn’t been started yet but will likely be a bullpen full of droids cranking LBO models and investment decks
I think you’re right from that magnitude of growth. But maybe say 3bn to 30 or 70 etc doesn’t have to be 3bn to almost 200.
Someone you’ve never heard of today doing something interesting in AI.
IMO someone like Pantera in crypto or that kid who left OpenAI and raised $1b+ to do an AI hedge fund but focused on integrating AI with trad companies. I don't think we'll ever see any funds with that kind of growth in other sectors except maybe healthcare unless they're vertically-focused spin-offs from existing big names in TMT PE or something focused on energy/infra (mainly to feed into the AI growth wave). In another 20+ years maybe someone builds a Vista/Thoma/Silver Lake for aerospace if we suddenly make a breakthrough in propulsion science and can start mining asteroids and realize Elon's wet dream of colonizing Mars.
Seems like there are a lot of those TMT spin outs though. no 1bn spin out now you think will grow to a 15bn fund?
I mean, it's possible I guess but I'm not about to pretend I'm smart enough to confidently make that call this early lol
All of the people who started those spin outs are orders of magnitude better than me professionally. They all have to believe they've got a shot at being "next." But if history is any indicator, 90%+ of them won't be. PE's all about long feedback cycles so it's impossible to know what's working until it already is.
Funds like Thoma and Vista have had their runs because they happened to coincide with the biggest bull runs in history. Then there are funds like AKKR (started around similar time as Vista) who were operating at the same scale in the beginning but for whatever reason didn't remotely keep pace in terms of size. I couldn't begin to tell you why, it just is.
World isn’t growing like it once was, think in existing industries PE has captured most of what’s out there and is converging towards public market returns. This will need to capture net new value via AI / Space as said above or another tangential new technology
Maybe Arcline ... they have grown rapidly, though they're gonna need some exits to stay on that trajectory. Hard to know the next great one when so many are holding their companies and not exiting (but have great paper returns).
They’ve got there fair share of duds in the portfolio
They’re crushing it.
Delete
Delete
Delete
their LPs still seem to like them ... $6b in under a year.
Prestige Worldwide is in market raising a massive fund I heard
Patient Square off to a hot start at $14bn. Also $26north as well over $20bn with Josh Harris having done it before.
Josh Harris did not do it before. Leon Black and Marc Rowan did.
This shows just how little you know about Josh Harris and what he did for Apollo. Leon brought the brand and backing, Marc and Josh were the actual killers in the trenches taking scalps.
26north has an absolutely sick mandate, super interesting flexibility and great comp to bring the talent. They for sure I think make it to $100b+ if they can avoid donuts.
Nobody, the PE tailwinds seen in the 2010s won't be replicated ever again. That said spin outs from huge firms will be the best bet to go from small to big, just will not be at the scale seen in the 2010s.
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