Which distressed asset targeted PE fund will bail out Evergrande?

I'm no expert on housing policy in China, just a REGAL banker, but as I understand, it really hasn't been that sudden and the writing has been on the wall for a while.

China's been in the midst of an urban revolution, with something like another 400 million people being expected to move to an urban area in the next 15 years, in order to drive economic growth. Yet, for quite some time the government has been worried that urbanization may be derailed by the lack of affordable housing in cities for both the existing urban poor and the massive influx of migrants. In the late 80s and early 90s, Chinese cities experienced an unprecedented housing privatization, which heavily boosted home-ownership rates to some of the highest in the world, but also has skyrocketed prices in cities. Real estate also became the most popular form of investment due to the lack of property tax, rising house prices, and a lackluster stock market (while the equities market may be considered the most important form of investment for Americans, in China real estate is much more popular than the stock market), and as a result developers focused more and more on luxury housing and the rate of second homeownership in China is higher than in most developed countries, which has priced out migrants, the old/sick/disabled, young professionals and college graduates.

Faced with increasing discontent and potential social instability, the government in China has been focused on finding a solution for some time. However, with the real estate market being for the Chinese people essentially what the stock market is for most middle and upper class people in America, it's been a political minefield for the government to navigate (much like how any talk of stocks doing badly and hurting all our 401Ks is bad politics in the US). The government was been pretty tip-toey with most reforms, but in the mid-2010s the Xi-Li administration decided to be much more bold. I believe in around 2016 or so, Xi had the government study a national property tax, which was quickly shot down as local governments also depend on revenues from land sales to property developers and they quickly rallied against the proposal. Instead, the central government came up with much more moderate proposals, introducing a cap on the number of homes people can own in the hottest markets like Shanghai as well as property tax in very few high-demand cities.

The current government has been very clear that they believe the solution to controlling house price growth and improving urban affordability is Singapore-esque public housing rather than the privatization of the housing market that the government did in the 80s to increase supply. To reduce speculation, the government passed the "three red lines" policy in 2020 (specific balance sheet and capital requirements), and as I understand, a year on, Evergrande still didn't abide by the requirements, so the government decided to get serious with the events that unfolded earlier this year, as mentioned in my previous post. On the other side, the government has been passing the burden of increasing affordable housing supply to local governments. Public housing development was highlighted in the most recent 5-year plan, and the local governments of the largest cities have been instructed to develop public rental housing and meeting supply targets. Shenzhen, which has always been a guinea pig for the government to test out big reforms, has completely shifted away from the Hong Kong property model in favor of a Singapore-esque property model, and has planned to eventually have 60% of all residents living in a public housing scheme.