Title is pretty self explanatory; which 4-5 MFs will be on top in a decade from a fundraising and returns perspective?
Obviously, seen MFs like Carlyle and Vista struggle a bit in recent years.
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Probably none of the names that come to mind - fundraising environment has been bleak and the performance of current vintages could dictate fundraising for many MFs in that timeframe.
Also Vista just closed a $20B dollar fund - took a while, but still target and above par. I’d be more worried about firms like Bain and Warburg Pincus, who aren’t raising quickly nor “mega funds”, seems $20B is the MF-minimum now.
warburg raises smaller funds faster
bain in trouble yes
latest warburg raise was 17bn across geographies in 2023, with last fund in 2018; bain more like 25 across US / europe / asia at a similar / faster clip (& more if you include growth/VC to be truly apples to apples) so don’t quite understand that comment
Bain not in trouble at all, don’t understand why I’ve seen this comment a couple times on this site. They raise individual funds per geography, and combining those fundraises for recent cycle, they sat at around $25 BN, which is completely in line and ahead of a bunch of other “MF”
H&F by far
Performance of recent funds has just been ok (not bad by any means but not lights out), having some trouble liquidating, and multiple rich environment means the pay up for obviously good assets approach will be harder without a deep operational angle going forward. They scaled fund size way aggressively in last couple years, will be interesting to see how performance responds
cd&r
Apollo
Advent and CD&R have both raised record funds recently. I think they are positioned to raise larger funds than the multi-manager public players simply because those other funds already take so much money from LPs through their other strategies (LPs might be less willing to invest a lot in a PE, PC, Infra fund all by one firm vs just a PE fund). Those funds have also had great returns that have led to their great fundraising recently. I of course cannot predict the future, but if the criteria is the largest individual fund sizes for flagships those would be my shouts.
I genuinely think Secondaries focused firms will blow up in size in the next decade.
The scalability of the business model and the inherent need for liquidity in PE is a recipe for massive fund sizes.
Maybe, but secondaries investors are bottom feeders
Are you forgetting about whitehorse liquidity partners A.K.A. Dawson partners A.K.A Toronto's Apollo??
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