EXPO REAL - impressions, sentiment, feedback

Hello,

Anyone here participated EXPO REAL in Munich, Germany?

What are your feelings, impression.

The stories I’ve heard about German (largest European market) & Austrian markets are really scary - interest rates and yield decompression killing project-finance based loanes at the same time bond market killing resi developers financed at holdco level…

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So I would share with you my impression:

  • Office market in Europe is in hesitation point - nobody knows how efficiently companies will be able (and if) to get people back to the office on more frequent basis - with >50% presence, as this is the turning point in terms of how much space tenants need. 
    • For now vast majority of agreement rollover is happening with shrinking area, especially in B-class / regional cities, 
  • Logistics - lower pace of commercialization. Tenants do not want to make long commitments, they are signing lease agreement once the asset is almost complete - this has a direct impact on access to financing, amount of equity that needs to be invested and effectively IRRs,
  • Residential - market driven by macroeconomics in particular countries/regions, but sentiment starting from optimistic in Czech Republic / Poland and super-pesimistic for Austria / Germany,
  • Multifamily - booming, due to low access to individual mortgage debt (interest rated)

But I think 2 key already materializing risks for Eurozone:

  • Interest rates - these are killing investment market, causing yield mismatch/spread between sellers and buyers, limiting the # of deals close to zero. At the same time such a high interest rates are putting at risk liquidity of key market players, big enough to pull the whole market down if they go bust. Due to size and structure of financing this might have impact not only on RE sector, but also financinal/banking sector, 
  • Yield decompression - connected with the above, there is high concern about value of assets both from investor's perspective, but also from debt side - some deals were structured at >75% LTV with yields below 3%. This results with LTVs above 140% with currently expected yields...

So generally crisis nor here yet, but the dark clouds are above, especially looking at German & Austrian markets, which combined are key economies of European Union.

 

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