Hiring Freezes
Has there been any talk about hiring freezes or trimming the headcount? I feel the current market has made firms reevaluate their needs.
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Removed because things have obviously changed since 3/9
For some reason people love to panic on this site and tell everyone the world is ending- Idk why I guess it makes people feel better about themselves somehow?
Allowing anonymous posting was such a dumb decision by this website
In my opinion, the reason for so much monkey shit is that very early on while everybody was still trying to figure out the extent of the impact of Covid-19 and a recession will have on CRE, it felt like you immediately dismissed any possible impact the stock market crash will have on CRE. Not saying thats how you felt but the tone and the way your wrote your comment, it certainly felt that way. In reality, we all know that the stock market and CRE is related even if there is no direct relationship and secondly, you yourself saw how much has changed in a week, so when there is so much happening in a quick period of time, if there is limited data available, it is better to not believe in two extremes-either the world is crashing or everything is fine. The way your worded your comment, it felt like you were in one extreme and even in 08 when the world was crashing, there were people who had their heads in the sand saying everything was fine and it left a bad taste in everyones mouth particularly when the person saying everything was fine had something to gain from it. Not saying you had any nefarious intentions, just offering one perspective on the amount of monkey shit and why someone would not like what you said as it comes off like a person having their head in the sand.
I respect that.
I do think it's a result of just skimming my initial comment. OP asked if there had been any talk about hiring freezes or layoffs, and when I originally posted that my answer of "Nope" was both honest and correct, as I hadn't heard either. I also made sure to say "Don't immediately assume" in my assessment of the current stock market's impact on the real estate world, not that the two aren't tied or that it won't ultimately have an impact.
Still, clearly people took issue with it, so if I didn't get my point across that's on me.
I always thought a recession would be a good thing for opportunistic PE funds with significant dry powder (although not good for their predecessor funds or pretty much any owner of real estate).
Many opportunistic funds haven’t been able to find good deals because valuations are so high. If prices start to drop and investors begin panic selling, this could create more activity.
What you don’t want is for capital to dry up. Meaning you don’t want lenders to stop lending, LP investors to stop giving operators capital through JVs, Pension Funds to curtail their investment into PE Funds, public REITs to lose their ability to raise debt/equity.
Right now the only issue I see is public REITs losing their ability to raise equity due to their low stock prices. But again this can create deal flow if the REIT is forced to sell properties in order to pay down debt.
Anyone have a different take on this? I’m mostly thinking through the lens of the value-add / opportunistic PE fund because this is the field I want to get into
The thing about market downturns is they aren't just a momentary hard reset of asset valuations followed by another 7 year run-up. You don't just get to buy something at half-price one day and then enjoy robust income growth into perpetuity. There are years and years of negative growth.
Example:After the dot com bubble of 2000 the S&P didn't return to previous highs until roughly 2007 (then it fell off a fucking cliff again). It didn't even start to recover until 2003. Most PE funds don't have a 7 year horizon to wait until pricing recovers. Most models I build don't work with 3-5years worth of negative growth assumptions.
That's where you're wrong, bud…
[lowers sunglasses]
…welcome to the Real Estate forum.
[pops denim jacket collar, walks off into the sunset]
Two places I scheduled first round interviews with got back to me before the calls and said they were suspending recriuting for the time being.
They asked I reach out later in the Spring.
Annoying, but understandable.
Speaking from the principal perspective here.
Tangential to the question, but I'm having a different perspective on the covid impact on real estate.
While recently raised funds or funds with significant dry powder may be well positioned to capitalize on value opportunities from distressed sales etc, and that historically, the inverse correlation with equities would suggest that people would gravitate toward RE in times like these, I think there will certainly be significant headwinds to the office RE space (and hospitality) in the next few quarters.
Buildings that we've been prepping for the market have all been sidelined. Nobody's touring nowadays, so no point in marketing a property if you're going to get a fraction of interested buyers. I know for our fund there will likely be a freeze on all investment activity for at least the near term, and I can't imagine too many other buyers making purchases at a time like this.
And that's not even touching upon the impacts on capital markets. I'd be surprised how many of the traditional lenders are willing to make loans now.
Aside from new investment activity, existing portfolios are going to suffer as well. As the entire country gradually comes under the restraints of 'lockdown' and employers are forcing employees to WFH, I imagine there will be little to no leasing activity for the next few quarters. Who's going to sign a large expensive lease when >50% of your workers are going to be remote? And let's not forget our friends at WeWork in all of this. Boy have they just hopped out of the frying pan and into the fire... they just can't catch a break. Our AM's are walking these wework spaces and seeing entire floors just barren. I can't imagine any short term leasing to be done at WeWork esp considering they have the highest density spaces possible so they've gotta be hemorrhaging cash. Would Softbank's investors even allow another bailout at this point?
To the point of real estate being more of a marathon and not a race, I'd think this is true for long-term hold funds, at least for the Boston Properties of the world out there who are likely in a fine position to weather this. But for those playing in the value add or opportunistic spaces out there with fund lives 7 years, even this 6 month to 1 year of severe instability is going to have long reaching ramifications to the performance and success of that overall fund given the blowback on leasing, and that major repositioning strategies / etc will be pretty much sent into a tailspin.
In terms of the hiring freeze, I'm sure this has to be coming. For layoffs, I suppose this depends on how recently your company just raised a new fund (and whether you're flush with cash or not), and I'm even wondering how this affects our current year's summer interns...
Interesting times.
In the midst of all of this, I just want to put it out there that we’re still hiring at Goldman. In asset management we’re still looking for an analyst or associate on the commercial team along with an analyst on the multifamily team
Some PE funds are moving forward with recruiting virtually. Just had an interview set up at a large REPE fund and spoke with a recruiter who said many groups are still actively looking for people. Although no one has been hired through a fully virtual process (meaning first round to hire 100% virtual - no face to face), there is a chance that happens in the near future - according to the recruiter
I imagine this applies to REPE but not Lending, development or owner/operators